• China has had it for 3 months now, and 3100 odd deaths in China.

    It’s been in Italy for what, a month now, with 1000 deaths.

    Why will the U.K. have up to 497,000 more deaths?

    Seems like quite the jump...

  • We might not - that's very much worst case.

    China might not be completely honest about their numbers.
    China will probably have a second wave once restrictions on Hubei are lifted.
    Italy's deaths are going up exponentially still.

    But no-one really knows how bad its going to be.

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