• In the CMO briefing earlier today, he quoted the reasonable worst case infection rate of the UK at 80%. Presumably this is unlikely but possible.

    He also quotes their best estimate of mortality at 1%. This number seemed much firmer.

    So, worst case is over half a million deaths in the UK.

  • Can anyone explain (to most lay of laymen) the scientific reasons for our govts current approach? I tried to find the full briefing but only caught bits on the beeb. They seemed to be saying we need to flatten the curve but now wasn’t the time and we need more people to be infected before it’s worth bothering trying to flatten the curve. Or something.

  • Flattening the curve means fewer people infected as we take preventative measures so onset is slower, spread out more so health service can deal better with the 12% serious cases

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