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That was posted yesterday. I don't know how creditable it is or reasonable it's assumptions. I don't know if they're the authors conclusions, or uncredited expert's but if you look at the authors other articles...
How to deliver your funny speech
What the Rise of Skywalker can teach about storytelling
How to become the best in the world at something
I'm unconvinced that he's an epidemiologist
christianSpaceman
aggi
I don't know if it’s been posted but seems like bs free read - https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca