• when it starts to spread

    I think it's not really a question of when. Towards the end of last week they were at like 200 cases if I remember correctly, today they stand at over 1000, and they're nicely distributed through the country too (well, fewer cases in 'flyover states', but there are also just way fewer people there). I'd say they're in full exponential spread mode right now, at least when you take the country as a whole.

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