Chat about Novel Coronavirus - 2019-nCoV - COVID-19

My mum's dead also if that's any consolation. Sorry if I've caused you any harm. Thought mum jokes were still fair game.

Harsh

So we are moving from 'contain' to 'delay' phase. Which means the contain part lasted 2 days. It's really moving very fast.

2 days?

Surely it lasted from the first case in the UK? Couple of weeks ago, on the Wirral, no?

My wife's friend shared a waterbottle with someone who tested positive
the next day :/

Cheerio

Turns out the person hasn't tested positive, but HAS returned from Northern Italy and has a "cold" but not bothered self-isolating or getting tested. Now my wife's friend has a "cold" as well but also has no interest in self-isolation or getting tested, and my wife intends to have lunch with her this weekend (I have seen the text messages along the lines of "I'm not letting Corona tell me what to do")

Could be wierder (not a real word) but claiming that you are self isolating so not going to work. There have been rumours that a staff member has been tested for covid as there was a school ski trip over the half term to the north of Italy, wrong area. If some one had been tested you would think the school would announce it.

Then sharing pictures of you going on dates with chaps you have met on tinder, and not setting your account to private so all can see.

This is the attitude I'd expect in our expert loathing era.

Trump calling the WTO stats false then calling it the flu pretty much nails it.

Mother Nature ain't got time fo that

https://youtu.be/Yz9hHjtWsu8

What does the World Trade Org have to do with it?

Right!

Oi! We've all been there! Be nice!

Sorry. It was a childish joke.

Trump calling the WTO stats false then calling it the flu pretty much nails it.

There's no excuse for calling it corona flu but, in the massively inarticulate way the gibbering fucknugget talks, he was actually vaguely right in trying to correct the news channel on their clickbait reporting of a "3.4% mortality rate" in the same way that the 3.4% rate has been discussed in this thread. The actual mortality rate will be quite a bit lower than this as there are many many mild cases that haven't (and won't) be identified.

Also saying it was fine to go to work with 'conona flu' is a fucking stupid thing to say too.

Isn’t the issue the difference between fatality and mortality here. The latter being once it’s over?

I interpreted (because that what you have to do with Trump) to mean people will go to work with it perfectly fine. Which I’d say is the problem we face. He perhaps should have been more explicit about that not being a good idea... but with their workers rights maybe he can’t say that!?

I have seen the text messages along the lines of "I'm not letting Corona tell me what to do"

I'm getting a lot of this at home too. My other half is going to go to a gig tonight with her friends because if she didn't then she would be the only one of the group not to go. It's up to her in the end but a cliff-based analogy springs to mind. On top of that the wider family-in-law includes a retired doctor who seems to hold the conflicting views that a) a bit of a purge would do society in general a favour and b) institutions/experts are all liars paid by communist factions seeking to overthrow Intergalactic Overlord BoJo.

2 days?

Surely it lasted from the first case in the UK? Couple of weeks ago, on the Wirral, no?

I meant from the official government plan announced on tuesday to contain, delay, research and mitigate.

Isn’t the issue the difference between fatality and mortality here. The latter being once it’s over?

Picking the right number for the denominator is the hard part of epidemiology and gets easier with time, but as time goes on picking the right number of the numerator becomes harder - did this person die of Covid-19 or the long term illness that had them at death's door anyway?

An R₀ of 1.8 and a mortality rate of 3.4% would be very bad, you'd be looking at ~2% of the UK population dying from it all within the next 6-12 months.

Looks like another cruise ship going into quarantine after a previous passenger died from covid-19 and four others were infected. Princess line so same as the one in Japan.

Cancel yer cruises everyone (I know its been said here before but cant repeat a good message often enough)

I'm getting a lot of this at home too. My other half is going to go to a gig tonight with her friends because if she didn't then she would be the only one of the group not to go. It's up to her in the end but a cliff-based analogy springs to mind.

Doesn't seem overly cavalier. If we've seen about 100 cases, and even if the actual number is 100x that then 10,000 across a population of 65 million seem like it's still early to be avoiding all social events.

a) a bit of a purge would do society in general a favour

Well, if it happened before the referendum

Cancel yer cruises everyone

Good advice in any situation.

I'm getting a lot of this at home too. My other half is going to go to a gig tonight with her friends because if she didn't then she would be the only one of the group not to go.

Is there any reason to suspect someone at the gig may have it or are you just talking about general precautions?

Popped into Tesco's yesterday to grab some drugs, (feeling rather ropey) and the shelves were like a scene out of a film.
Surely people realise that all this talk of panic is causing more panic?

I don't actually have an specific problem with her going but it was more the FOMO driving the decision rather than considering the risks even slightly.

Christ. I'm off to get some drugs at lunchtime in that case.