• Sone positive news from Marc Lipsitch - estimates for R0 are being lowered closer to 2 and he has therefore updated best estimate to a range of 20% to 60% of adults being infected (prior range was 40% to 70%).

    Also an article from Bill Gates in NEJM that is interesting:

    https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp2003762

  • I've not tried to keep up to date with what's written, and appreciate that the knowledge will be growing with time. However:

    Bill Gates, 28th Feb:

    There is also strong evidence that it can be transmitted by people who are just mildly ill or even presymptomatic

    WHO, 3rd March:

    First, COVID-19 does not transmit as efficiently as influenza, from the data we have so far.

    With influenza, people who are infected but not yet sick are major drivers of transmission, which does not appear to be the case for COVID-19.

    These appear to be different statments, from two (likely) reasonable sources.

    source

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