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Not to downplay it, but currently China has <80,000 cases. This represents <0.007% of their population and the increase in new cases there have probably peaked now.
Having been warned, the rest of the world are now prepared and ready to take immediate action if/when it spreads to their borders. Surely 40 - 70% of the world population is a huge over-estimation of the threat?
Lebowski
I fear we are looking at a global pandemic, likely to effect somewhere between 40% to 70% of the world's population, with a number of fatalities somewhere between 15m and 100m.
Impact will be worst in developing countries with fragile public health systems and limited response capacity, but still felt heavily in developed countries, with majority of deaths among elderly or those with other chronic illnesses, but with a significant number of deaths among young, otherwise healthy people.
I think there will be major economic and geo-political effects, although difficult to predict the extent of these.
Somebody please tell me why I am wrong.