Chat about Novel Coronavirus - 2019-nCoV - COVID-19

Dunno. Don't you have a spreadsheet for it?

I'm starting to get pretty alarmed now

Yes you've been saying this for the last three weeks!

Now I'm really alarmed!!!

I was merely concerned a couple of weeks ago...

Gaffa tape and nails?

If we all get it that's somewhere around 1m dying in the UK. Quite a serious threat.

There are 13.9 millions disabled people in the UK, if the government eugenic programme isn’t successful, then this will be if it hit UK proper.

Two internal emails about Coronavirus this morning - locking down all non-essential business travel & letting all the Japanese & Italian offices WFH. Bit concerning.

We need a proper scale to measure your sense of concern

I don't. I'm not in that team anymore.

Bit concerning.

We're past that now... What is the official LFGSS panic level right now?

I'm seriously gonna have to talk to my boss about this tomorrow, we probably need to make our own contingency plans as an organisation...

http://twitter.com/threat_update

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https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

This is a really helpful place to get some information.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00548-w

We’re past that now, update your will.

Being young, fit an healthy, concern = 0.

Maybe we should re do brexit vote in 2 years time though...

I fear we are looking at a global pandemic, likely to effect somewhere between 40% to 70% of the world's population, with a number of fatalities somewhere between 15m and 100m.

Impact will be worst in developing countries with fragile public health systems and limited response capacity, but still felt heavily in developed countries, with majority of deaths among elderly or those with other chronic illnesses, but with a significant number of deaths among young, otherwise healthy people.

I think there will be major economic and geo-political effects, although difficult to predict the extent of these.

Somebody please tell me why I am wrong.

But the effect on global co2 from less air travel, industrial output and people could be a silver lining in all this.

I'm not sure the people in developing countries this will fall hardest on have particularly high carbon footprints.

If the Chinese could create a virus that specifically targeted the executive class, that would be another matter.

Maybe this is the first attempt at that.

Impact will be worst in developing countries

hasnt this been the case since like forever? in every pandemic ..

My understanding was that containment is now not realistic given that it can be transmitted without symptoms (and given how widespread it already is).

Not to downplay it, but currently China has <80,000 cases. This represents <0.007% of their population and the increase in new cases there have probably peaked now.

Having been warned, the rest of the world are now prepared and ready to take immediate action if/when it spreads to their borders. Surely 40 - 70% of the world population is a huge over-estimation of the threat?

we just need to do one of those mumsnet type parties where they bring their kids to get infected with mumps or chickenpox, lets invite a corona virus superspreader to north south west drinks get exposed and then we can stop worrying, we'll possibly lose 2 percent of the forum but seeing how it's grown over the last 10+ years that 2% won't be missed for long, we'll soon replace them, and seeing as we're all probably above average healthwise due to all this cycling stuff 2% would be a worst case scenario

then we can just get on with life / gigs

The way the CCP has managed to contain the virus is by mass quarantining and shutting down large parts of the economy. That has been effective in slowing the growth of new cases, but can they continue with that until the virus is eradicated in China? At some point I expect they will relax measures and beak outs will flare up, or it will re-imported from other countries it has spread to. The virus is now established in other countries that are unwilling or unable to take the same containment measures as China, and they will be the source for further spread.

@T_Inglesby on Twitter is good as regards measures to blunt the spread and how governments should respond. Maybe it is happening behind the scenes, but it feels like there needs to be a far greater mobilisation of public resources and coordinated international planning to tackle this.

Work has put a bottle of hand sanitiser on a stool near the lifts. Phew!