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That 1% estimate... isn’t it fair to argue that IF 60% of a population is contaminated then health resources would be so dramatically stretched as to assure a much larger fatality rate than is currently being experienced?
(Genuine question although I do acknowledge that this is firmly in the category of ‘Man talks without qualification on internet’)
Wrongcog-
That 1% estimate... isn’t it fair to argue that IF 60% of a population is contaminated then health resources would be so dramatically stretched as to assure a much larger fatality rate than is currently being experienced?
The 1% is current and I suspect imprecise. There is a considerable difference between 0.6% and 1.4%. There is a good chance that mortality will reduce as the virus ages but also the prospect that it will hit vulnerable people more in the future than it has to date. For example, weak aged people are not flying as much as younger fitter people but will be sitting target in care homes.
That said, the advice is likely to be that all but the most vulnerable self treat at home. Doctors and nurses run considerable risk of infection. More medical advice will be handed out by phone or email.
Antivirals may also be created (but possibly too late).
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Acknowledging that much is still unknown, this pictograph from Imperial College shows that whilst 60% might contract the virus, 60% of population won't be hospitalized. It's also worth remembering that the deaths are unlikely to be in addition to, with elderly patients (over 60) currently accounting for ~80% of deaths. (According to the NHC PRC transcript)
Any elderly patient with COPD/Diabetes/IHD/CKD are high risk anyway. Pneumococcal pneumonia causes something like 40, 000 hospital admissions a year, and kills 20% of those!
So whilst it is serious, unless you are in an 'at risk' category or living in an area where the panic buying and such affects your day to day, I would continue as normal with some common sense personal infection control techniques.
If it had the mortality rate of Ebola, then it would be time for out and out panic.
cliveo
Kurai
So, if this takes off, they are expecting 60% of the population to contract the virus.
The current mortality rate is 1%
While the virus might weaken as it spreads and the mortality rate could reduce, if it stays at that level some 0.6% of the UK population could die.
That is, in a population of 64 million (CIA World Factbook 2015 estimate) 384,000 people, mainly old.
This could have some curious economic effects.
Good times for undertakers and probate lawyers.
A release of trapped equity to a generation below. This could reduce house prices and add considerable sums to stimulate the economy or could allow people who were renting to buy.
Less stress on care homes.
Reduction in demand for the NHS.
At the same time, such sickness will impact adversely on the economy at a difficult time possibly sparking a recession. Trade talks could be made difficult particularly if travel restrictions apply.
For the longer term, the idea of remote working could really come into its own and the use of video conferencing become more usual and acceptable. Perhaps people will find that they don't need to travel as much.
The Black Death was considerably greater in scope and mortality and had profound economic and political consequences. Covid 19 is nothing like that but, in its own small way, may make a impact on the way we live our lives.
Provided, of course, that we stay alive.