You are reading a single comment by @hoefla and its replies.
Click here to read the full conversation.
London Fixed Gear and Single-Speed is a community of predominantly fixed gear and single-speed cyclists in and around London, UK.
This site is supported almost exclusively by donations. Please consider donating a small amount regularly.
hoefla
So, if this takes off, they are expecting 60% of the population to contract the virus.
The current mortality rate is 1%
While the virus might weaken as it spreads and the mortality rate could reduce, if it stays at that level some 0.6% of the UK population could die.
That is, in a population of 64 million (CIA World Factbook 2015 estimate) 384,000 people, mainly old.
This could have some curious economic effects.
Good times for undertakers and probate lawyers.
A release of trapped equity to a generation below. This could reduce house prices and add considerable sums to stimulate the economy or could allow people who were renting to buy.
Less stress on care homes.
Reduction in demand for the NHS.
At the same time, such sickness will impact adversely on the economy at a difficult time possibly sparking a recession. Trade talks could be made difficult particularly if travel restrictions apply.
For the longer term, the idea of remote working could really come into its own and the use of video conferencing become more usual and acceptable. Perhaps people will find that they don't need to travel as much.
The Black Death was considerably greater in scope and mortality and had profound economic and political consequences. Covid 19 is nothing like that but, in its own small way, may make a impact on the way we live our lives.
Provided, of course, that we stay alive.