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I appreciate this post
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Provided, of course, that we stay alive.
Provided of course that the virus doesn't mutate to be worse than it currently is. So much uncertainty...
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That 1% estimate... isn’t it fair to argue that IF 60% of a population is contaminated then health resources would be so dramatically stretched as to assure a much larger fatality rate than is currently being experienced?
(Genuine question although I do acknowledge that this is firmly in the category of ‘Man talks without qualification on internet’)
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If you take the mortality rate outside Hubei you get a lot fewer deaths so your optimism for herd thinning may be less than 50,000 old people with existing medical conditions. Even at this lower rate, assuming they all live in single occupancy mansions which could be subdivided into two flats (or more) then this could cover the expected shortfall in the current house building targets for the next few years.
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@cliveo
So, if this takes off, they are expecting 60% of the population to contract the virus.
The current mortality rate is 1%
While the virus might weaken as it spreads and the mortality rate could reduce, if it stays at that level some 0.6% of the UK population could die.
That is, in a population of 64 million (CIA World Factbook 2015 estimate) 384,000 people, mainly old.
This could have some curious economic effects.
Good times for undertakers and probate lawyers.
A release of trapped equity to a generation below. This could reduce house prices and add considerable sums to stimulate the economy or could allow people who were renting to buy.
Less stress on care homes.
Reduction in demand for the NHS.
At the same time, such sickness will impact adversely on the economy at a difficult time possibly sparking a recession. Trade talks could be made difficult particularly if travel restrictions apply.
For the longer term, the idea of remote working could really come into its own and the use of video conferencing become more usual and acceptable. Perhaps people will find that they don't need to travel as much.
The Black Death was considerably greater in scope and mortality and had profound economic and political consequences. Covid 19 is nothing like that but, in its own small way, may make a impact on the way we live our lives.
Provided, of course, that we stay alive.