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He’s been sourcing masks with his buddies also. So the latest joke is that if your blue (gov supporter), don’t go begging for masks from these folks. The first guy is the richest man in HK, everyone in the queue is yellow (the people supported) or as the gov has labelled them as rioters.
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If you were going to go pass HK, would you stay at a hotel for the night or sth?
My uncle is a bit under the weather at the moment and apparently the whole family is all too afraid to go to the airport, so I was thinking in the best case scenario, that is you are in HK and have masks, could they meet you at your hotel or something.
I would make sure they pay for your transportation to and from the airport and treat you something nice. I know you won’t ask for it, but it is a very Chinese thing.
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So, if this takes off, they are expecting 60% of the population to contract the virus.
The current mortality rate is 1%
While the virus might weaken as it spreads and the mortality rate could reduce, if it stays at that level some 0.6% of the UK population could die.
That is, in a population of 64 million (CIA World Factbook 2015 estimate) 384,000 people, mainly old.
This could have some curious economic effects.
Good times for undertakers and probate lawyers.
A release of trapped equity to a generation below. This could reduce house prices and add considerable sums to stimulate the economy or could allow people who were renting to buy.
Less stress on care homes.
Reduction in demand for the NHS.At the same time, such sickness will impact adversely on the economy at a difficult time possibly sparking a recession. Trade talks could be made difficult particularly if travel restrictions apply.
For the longer term, the idea of remote working could really come into its own and the use of video conferencing become more usual and acceptable. Perhaps people will find that they don't need to travel as much.
The Black Death was considerably greater in scope and mortality and had profound economic and political consequences. Covid 19 is nothing like that but, in its own small way, may make a impact on the way we live our lives.
Provided, of course, that we stay alive.
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Provided, of course, that we stay alive.
Provided of course that the virus doesn't mutate to be worse than it currently is. So much uncertainty...
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That 1% estimate... isn’t it fair to argue that IF 60% of a population is contaminated then health resources would be so dramatically stretched as to assure a much larger fatality rate than is currently being experienced?
(Genuine question although I do acknowledge that this is firmly in the category of ‘Man talks without qualification on internet’)
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Broadly, it's to prevent contamination of the patient by droplets of saliva etc. At least that is the main purpose.
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That 1% estimate... isn’t it fair to argue that IF 60% of a population is contaminated then health resources would be so dramatically stretched as to assure a much larger fatality rate than is currently being experienced?
The 1% is current and I suspect imprecise. There is a considerable difference between 0.6% and 1.4%. There is a good chance that mortality will reduce as the virus ages but also the prospect that it will hit vulnerable people more in the future than it has to date. For example, weak aged people are not flying as much as younger fitter people but will be sitting target in care homes.
That said, the advice is likely to be that all but the most vulnerable self treat at home. Doctors and nurses run considerable risk of infection. More medical advice will be handed out by phone or email.
Antivirals may also be created (but possibly too late).
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If you take the mortality rate outside Hubei you get a lot fewer deaths so your optimism for herd thinning may be less than 50,000 old people with existing medical conditions. Even at this lower rate, assuming they all live in single occupancy mansions which could be subdivided into two flats (or more) then this could cover the expected shortfall in the current house building targets for the next few years.
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Problems with masks.
They generally filter to 2 microns, the virus in aerosol form is about 0.12 microns.
Germs and viruses will gather on the outside surface of the mask so if not removed properly, these will transmit to the hands.
The nose piece causes people to repeatedly touch the bridge of the nose, close to the tear ducts, an entry point into the body. I the hands are contaminated then this poses a risk.
They make you feel protected so could cause you to be less vigilant in other preventative measures such as hand washing.Benefits
They will stop the virus in droplet (cough/sneeze/spittle) form from reaching the face, see above about then touching the mask.
They stop droplets from infected persons.
They will reduce the area over which an infected persons breath will cover. -
Okay so, I thought about doing this last night but I'd had a couple of beers and thought I'd come at it a bit fresher.
Context: I'm not a Doctor but my other half is. Her specialist subject is Infectious Disease and Tropical Medicine in which she has an additional Masters from LSHTM. I am not a doctor but I happened to be a risk manager at a huge company during the SARS and Swine Flu outbreaks, so had to plan (in a small capacity) to mitigate those risks for 300k people. I'm not a doctor but I have also worked with people like Ben Goldacre to campaign for greater transparency in and build tools to expose disinformation in medical trials. But I'm not a doctor.
That said I spoke to my other half last night about this mask thing and: the benefits of them are negligible, practically zero for the kinds of masks that most wear. And almost exactly zero without the procedures that you would need to use in the home to avoid cross contamination. The guidance from organisations like the Mayo clinic concern medical-grade surgical masks primarily.
I say this because I read a little panic in this room and I hope this kind of rational thinking can help you. Like the wise @Rameye said, these masks still have value if you believe they do something, and that psychologically that is a positive. But please let's not pretend otherwise.
While I'm here:
LSHTM puts out an excellent podcast, you should listen to it: https://open.spotify.com/show/1pmEtPchcDhfud8R63vzDJ
Last weeks' 'more or less' on Radio 4 had a great section about Corvid-19, you can listen to it here: https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m000drn4
The death rate is currently 2% https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6 @WornCleat but your 60% figure is as far as I know accurate.
Thanks.
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Acknowledging that much is still unknown, this pictograph from Imperial College shows that whilst 60% might contract the virus, 60% of population won't be hospitalized. It's also worth remembering that the deaths are unlikely to be in addition to, with elderly patients (over 60) currently accounting for ~80% of deaths. (According to the NHC PRC transcript)
Any elderly patient with COPD/Diabetes/IHD/CKD are high risk anyway. Pneumococcal pneumonia causes something like 40, 000 hospital admissions a year, and kills 20% of those!
So whilst it is serious, unless you are in an 'at risk' category or living in an area where the panic buying and such affects your day to day, I would continue as normal with some common sense personal infection control techniques.
If it had the mortality rate of Ebola, then it would be time for out and out panic.
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Why’s Josh in there? Third in line.