EU referendum, brexit and the aftermath

Vast majority of our non-pet (not sure of classification here!) vets are not UK citizens IIRC, so some might suggest throwing them all into the hostile environment that saw 50 UK citizens deported to Jamaica yesterday is, erm, unwise.

What's the viewpoint like from outside the London/SE bubble?

Living in Northern Ireland, let's say people here aren't too impressed with Brexit to begin with, the hard unionists are pissed off with the border in the Irish Sea, most people just want local government to be good and they aren't looking forward to economic damage and of course others see it as a chance to push unification to the front of the agenda again, so all in all...not really helpful at all here.

This won't affect you, but Tories are happy to keep pushing the immigration blame game and dogwhistles (treating the country too much like my own? tx Boris...) and don't do much about bigotry against immigrants.

The minority of shits that exists in every country really has been emboldened by Brexit, the Windrush people are still waiting on compensation, they know 10s of thousands won't get Settled Status in time and become "illegal" but don't care.

Of course, it depends where you want to live in the UK, Belfast isn't bad but some people really are getting a hard time so may be worth investigating if you do want to go live somewhere and don't want to be around it. Or maybe you are happy to tell them to shut up as it is unbecoming and not British per the Life in the UK book ;)

There are no serious preparations being made for leaving at the end of this year - and there's no time, now, to prepare.

This was held up as the reason that they wouldn't go through with any of the precursor steps to this point, but they did them anyway.

I agree with your analysis; but I've come to think it's also possible that they'd just say 'f*ck it' and put up with six months of chaos at Dover. They're not acting economically rationally in any case so why to predict on the basis that they will later.

Maybe that would even be preferrable to allow them to plough unwanted legislation through in the guise of easing the 'EU caused crisis'.

Which has to lead to the conclusion that this is all piss and wind, and the U turn on a transition extension is already baked in.

Are you familiar with the logic puzzle where a convicted felon is told he will be executed at some point in the following week and that he won't know when he's being hanged until he's told on the day? The felon sees a logical contradiction in the sentence, realises it can't be enacted and goes to bed secure in the knowledge that either people will work it out or he'll point it out to them and all will be good. Get's a fuck of a surprise when they hang him on the Wednesday.

With Brexit, every time somebody says something like your statement here, I think of that. These are the same arguments that proved that the withdrawal agreement could never be passed.

I’d point out that Boris put an EU customs border in the UK, rather than no-deal.

The problem is that people believed him when he said he’d never do that, and proceeded on that assumption to reason that we’d never ratify the withdrawal bill.

In the end he couldn’t, wouldn’t accept no deal, and took an action that avoided it which he said he’d never countenance.

Which sounds oddly familiar.

This was also covered in the news piece, at least 50% of these Vets come from the EU, oh the irony!

Which then leads to the question of whether Johnson will be able to rely on Labour votes to change the law in early summer to allow him to ask for said transition, or whether we are on for another GE in August after Johnson is ousted by the ERG in the fight over the transition extension.

I'm not fully convinced by your analysis, plenty of people anticipated that Johnson would be willing to sacrifice NI to get some kind of deal.

However, regardless of that, do you not think that the ERG is marginalised enough that an extension could be pushed through by the Tories if it was deemed necessary. That hefty majority should mean that this kind of thing is a bit easier.

There isn't an election coming up any time soon so they can get away with pissing off some Brexit voters (and let's be honest, failing on his previous pledges to leave had no impact at the ballot box).

Yes - I read something (probably the same article) about this.

Many of them apparently come from Eastern Europe. Not only is there no guarantee that they'd be able to come over, or would even want to, but there'd also be the problem that their qualifications probably wouldn't be recognised. So when they got here, they wouldn't be able to work anyway :)

I'm not fully convinced by your analysis, plenty of people anticipated that Johnson would be willing to sacrifice NI to get some kind of deal.

However, regardless of that, do you not think that the ERG is marginalised enough that an extension could be pushed through by the Tories if it was deemed necessary. That hefty majority should mean that this kind of thing is a bit easier.

There isn't an election coming up any time soon so they can get away with pissing off some Brexit voters (and let's be honest, failing on his previous pledges to leave had no impact at the ballot box).

What is the membership of the ERG, and how many of the new intake of MP's are RWNJ?

The tories have been split by Europe for what, the last 30 years - bring the transition extension into focus and they'll split on it again I reckon.

Ha, fuck off... You'll have to do better than that... 🤪

I don't reckon that 80+ of the MPs are so extreme ERG that they'd rather force another election than agree to an extension of the transition.

Although I don't reckon there'll be an extension to the transition. I think we'll end up with some bodged deal on goods.

But bodged deal on goods = fish, which is a totemic issue for the RWNJ demographic, and a number of fishermen.

IME the other 50% are from Aus/NZ/SA

This is just one aspect of border checks that will now be in place, wondering what every other sector is going to look like and how it's all going to work! Plenty of skilled jobs being created is maybe the silver lining, fuck knows!

so extreme ERG that they'd rather...

Given the previous weak government its hard to say how many of the ERG were loonies and how many were exercising the power they had in pursuit of their aims.

They're no longer in a position to hold a gun to anyone's head.

As for BJ. He's perfectly capable of saying black is white and the Tory rags have shown they're willing to give his lies credibility.

He's perfectly capable of saying black is white

I don't think he'd say that

😘

They already took fishing of the job shortage list, the shortlist that allows people in w/o very strict visa and income rules.

It is not longer on there. And there is a shortage, quite a few mainland EU wans are working in fishing in NI.

I expect them to be thrown under the bus.

Hah! :D

It is not longer on there. And there is a shortage, quite a few mainland EU wans are working in fishing in NI.

Any insight on why they did that? Seems like it would be no skin off their back to keep it on that list, no?

As a follow up to yesterday, a few figures on Dover:

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I did predict what is happening. This meme is rather accurate.
Be careful what you wish for is the best way of saying it.

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That means they’ll need a minimum of 458 people constantly processing trucks 24 hours a day with no break to get the 11,000 a day moving.

Brexit creating jobs!

Those 458 will need supervisors and a whole host of support staff from HR to IT and all the letters in between.

Could easily be 1000 taxpayer funded jobs right there. This sounds like all win to me.