You are reading a single comment by @bananaskid and its replies.
Click here to read the full conversation.
London Fixed Gear and Single-Speed is a community of predominantly fixed gear and single-speed cyclists in and around London, UK.
This site is supported almost exclusively by donations. Please consider donating a small amount regularly.
@bananaskid
Lovely little simulation model by the MODLABs team that my economic network lecturer showed us to today: - link
Quite a fun simulation where you can change some of the, largely unknown, parameters relating the virus, e.g:
Some of the really cool data is their methodology. They've already got a lot of rich set of data of where people are going all over the world whether its internal commuter trains between Wuhan and flights and connecting flights.
They were also able to predict a few weeks in advance that there may considerable under-reporting of the virus in China. They way that they did those was considering (at the time of their first analysis) by considering the 50 or so international travellers who had conducted the virus without having travelled to Wihuan. For example, someone in Tokyo who catches the virus who didn't go to Wihuan they estimate the probability of doing so. This is based largely on transport networks, e.g. the number of people leaving Wuhan via, train, car, etc and after that who are the most likely to make contact with and where are they going next. With all of this data be used that found that it was very unlikely that international (without a direct Wuhan visit) was extremely low. Their conclusion, along with another analysis, implies original case reportings were too low.
1 Attachment