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Radio 4 was talking to a vet/expert in animal products import export requirements this morning, they were aware and prepared for checks and documentation required for exports but not for imports. No infrastructure, no staff, not enough capacity to train this non-existent staff for checking and documentation of animal product, these are all required to be trained vets as well. It's almost as if no-one has really thought about this!
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There are no serious preparations being made for leaving at the end of this year - and there's no time, now, to prepare.
This was held up as the reason that they wouldn't go through with any of the precursor steps to this point, but they did them anyway.
I agree with your analysis; but I've come to think it's also possible that they'd just say 'f*ck it' and put up with six months of chaos at Dover. They're not acting economically rationally in any case so why to predict on the basis that they will later.
Maybe that would even be preferrable to allow them to plough unwanted legislation through in the guise of easing the 'EU caused crisis'.
Johnson put an EU customs border between constituent parts of the UK rather than go for no-deal, despite saying he'd rather be dead in a ditch than do that.
There are no serious preparations being made for leaving at the end of this year - and there's no time, now, to prepare.
It's all inference and extrapolation, but some things are compelling - the total lack of frantic construction at Dover being one of them.