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Not sure is really possible to accurately calculate the mortality rate yet.
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I'm not sure I agree:
It is [relatively] early days, but we are day 29 since identification.The current evidence could suggest that case numbers will increase at a faster rate than deaths- as there appears to be a subset of people with milder symptoms who are positive for nCoV (https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-2019-nCoV-transmissibility.pdf).
It is therefore possible we are over-estimating the mortality rate.
Equally- as pointed out above- there are potentially undiagnosed fatalities.
However, given the timing (winter)- death from other causes with similar symptoms is not uncommon:
(https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/annual-flu-reports) (just to use UK 'flu data)In any case- I'm just reproducing the stats currently available. I aim to update as it goes on- purely from my own interest.
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There are also the thick end of 750 people in critical care.
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This is an unhelpful term, due to the loose definition of 'critical care'.
It is not necessarily equivalent to ITU (Level 3), is entirely hospital dependent, and runs the gamut from Level 1-3 care (as defined here https://www.bfwh.nhs.uk/our-services/hospital-services/critical-care/levels-of-care/). -
So you're calling it as 2-3% but also saying you could be over or underestimating for a variety of reasons including unclear data?
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I thought the sale thread was a giveaway!
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zerohedge always manage to find a chemical weapons laboratory near to any outbreak of infectious disease, wuhan only recently opened up a grade 1 research facility where they deal with all the really bad chemical weapons, pathogens and diseases, porton down is quite close to salisbury and had novichock , lymes disease ticks started on an island with a us chemical research facilty, it's just the superpowers practising their dark arts on us
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There's a reason why the majority of the virologists who have expressed a public opinion and who are working on this potential pandemic are saying its too early to calculate mortality rates. This is very early days.
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The best estimates of mortality and transmissibility will have a high error margin for some time. The article by Da Shiji illustrates the suppression of information followed by blockade and shutdown leading towards administrative collapse in Wuhan and neighbouring cities.
It is hard to compare mortality and transmissibiliy with SARS in 2003. This time the virus identification has been much quicker. The administrative cycle of deny deny deny / panic panic panic has been twice as quick. But the mobility of people is exponentially higher in 2020. Many times more Chinese and visitors move in and out of cities like Wuhan. They do it much faster and they go many times further. That situation is going to be a defining factor of this epidemic. -
wuhan only recently opened up a grade 1 research facility
I think it was established in 1956
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wuhan_Institute_of_Virology -
It is a reference to this:
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Further reported issues around testing:
Am I right in thinking the provisional R0 calculations would be based on the officially reported number of confirmed cases / growth curve in cases?
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Claims that a potential vaccine has already been developed in Hong Kong:
Stonehedge
dancing james
dicki
andyp
%~}
Charlie_L
hippy
PawG
Mr_Sworld
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Chat about Novel Coronavirus - 2019-nCoV - COVID-19
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Mortality Rate:
nCoV 2-3% (2.32) mortality rate, with all fatalities so far happening in China.
SARS was 9%
H5N1 was 14-50%
Transmissibility: (R0)
nCoV: 2-4
SARS: 2-5
H5N1: 1
Measles: 12-18
Data for others can be found here:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kHCEWY-d9HXlWrft9jjRQ2xf6WHQlmwyrXel6wjxkW8/edit#gid=0
And the beautiful chart of previous outbreaks can be found here:
https://informationisbeautiful.net/visualizations/the-microbescope-infectious-diseases-in-context/