The best estimates of mortality and transmissibility will have a high error margin for some time. The article by Da Shiji illustrates the suppression of information followed by blockade and shutdown leading towards administrative collapse in Wuhan and neighbouring cities.
It is hard to compare mortality and transmissibiliy with SARS in 2003. This time the virus identification has been much quicker. The administrative cycle of deny deny deny / panic panic panic has been twice as quick. But the mobility of people is exponentially higher in 2020. Many times more Chinese and visitors move in and out of cities like Wuhan. They do it much faster and they go many times further. That situation is going to be a defining factor of this epidemic.
The best estimates of mortality and transmissibility will have a high error margin for some time. The article by Da Shiji illustrates the suppression of information followed by blockade and shutdown leading towards administrative collapse in Wuhan and neighbouring cities.
It is hard to compare mortality and transmissibiliy with SARS in 2003. This time the virus identification has been much quicker. The administrative cycle of deny deny deny / panic panic panic has been twice as quick. But the mobility of people is exponentially higher in 2020. Many times more Chinese and visitors move in and out of cities like Wuhan. They do it much faster and they go many times further. That situation is going to be a defining factor of this epidemic.