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Fuck me, if the worst case scenario is that things get 1% better than they are now, why so much doom and gloom on this thread? Are those figures aggregate or per capita?
NickCJ-
Full report here. https://www.ifs.org.uk/uploads/GB2019-Chapter-3-UK-economic-outlook-in-four-Brexit-scenarios.pdf
4%+ of lost growth on a multi trillion GBP economy is quite a lot of money.
Stonehedge
These are the four possible Brexit scenarios modeled by the Institute of Fiscal Studies:
No offence but I'm going with their predictions over your arbitrary 50/50.
Source: https://www.ifs.org.uk/publications/14421