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No, it isn't.
Macro forecasting may be difficult, but forecasting whether putting in place additional trade barriers impacts the economy is not difficult. They do. That's well studied and demonstrable.
50/50 is not supportable based on any evidence. The "evidence of global issues" doesn't change the fundamentals, that we're making our own position worse.
andyfallsoff
Economic modelling at a macro scale is notoriously inaccurate.
There is no A:B test for any of this stuff. What we do not know is what would have happened anyway. We can look to other major European economies that are not exiting the EU: Germany and France both teetering on the edge of recession as indicators of more global issues.
50/50 is a sensible position to take.