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Economic modelling at a macro scale is notoriously inaccurate.
There is no A:B test for any of this stuff. What we do not know is what would have happened anyway. We can look to other major European economies that are not exiting the EU: Germany and France both teetering on the edge of recession as indicators of more global issues.
50/50 is a sensible position to take.
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No, it isn't.
Macro forecasting may be difficult, but forecasting whether putting in place additional trade barriers impacts the economy is not difficult. They do. That's well studied and demonstrable.
50/50 is not supportable based on any evidence. The "evidence of global issues" doesn't change the fundamentals, that we're making our own position worse.
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50/50 is a sensible position to take.
These are the four possible Brexit scenarios modeled by the Institute of Fiscal Studies:
No offence but I'm going with their predictions over your arbitrary 50/50.
andyfallsoff
Fox
50/50 based on what? The economic profession does not share that view. As @dammit says, this will make us poorer, compared to not leaving. What isn't clear is how much