General Election 2019

The reality that the Customs Union and Single Market are as good as a trade deal can get
will slowly sink in. It came into effect on January 1st 1993, but had been agreed after Thatcher sent Arthur (later Baron) Cockfield to negotiate it, which he did in 1986.
The Welsh, and other UK fishermen may complain about the Common Fishery Policy,
but that comes as part of the package of voting for Tory Governments who don't care about their electorate.
I hope the British fishermen are ready for a repeat of history.

I think we’ll end up with the RN escorting Spanish fishing vessels through British waters to protect them from aggrieved UK fishermen. That’s going to make a great picture for the news.

We need someone or something to really unify the electorate. I have no idea what the fuck that would look like. The vote split since the referendum has tended to be 52-48. The country is divided and ruled, there's a massive schism between city and country, regional working class non-university educated and metropolitan university educated. It's fucking obvious.
And before @fizzy.bleach jumps down my throat, I'm not university educated and also from Wales so by his rationale would be calling myself thick (many would argue that this is correct, however).

My point, as before, is that a significant segment of the population feels it's been left behind and in many ways it has. This dictates their voting habits entirely. My point about higher education, making it free, giving people a different perspective, hopefully driving true social mobility through developing learning and skills as well as providing them "skin in the game." They'll have an investment in the game.
Fuck knows this will never happen now, the Tories have got this sewn up for decades. Further savage cuts and alignment with the U.S. will produce ever more disenfranchised "slugs for salt" who can't fathom that they're being abused and lied to by power.

They'll only value "strength" as they know, deep down, they're powerless.

Looking into the work of Paolo Ferreire is instructive on what I mean. The regional working class doesn't value learning for learning's sake, critically; it doesn't value reading for reading's sake: the very basis of study. Apart from the very few acknowledged "swots" in my class in the Welsh valleys (that's another interesting aspect to anti-education culture in traditional working class society, being called a "swot") I was the only one who read books for enjoyment. I had a lot of abuse for it from other pupils. And I think I internalised these values as I never went to Uni, which I should have.

My point, as before, is that a significant segment of the population feels it's been left behind and in many ways it has.

I can't see how anyone can dispute this, as large swathes of the country have never recovered from the Thatcher led devastation of heavy industry and manufacturing. Change will have to come as fewer and fewer people are able to get well paid jobs that allow them to do the basics their parents did, like buying their own house.

I was very fortunate as I was the first person from my family to ever go to university, and I benefitted from free university education and maintenance grants and when I graduated I had debts of less than £250. If I'd faced possible debts of £30k at the end of it there is no way on earth I'd have taken that route. Social mobility like that has all but gone now, and that is not good for our society.

And the other thing to really worry about considering the far-right populist, xenophobic, nationalist, insular political rhetoric that Vote Leave/Farage/the Conservatives have employed is that it could give rise to actual fascism.

For sure. It's amazing to consider that so many older voters who swung to the Tories were alive during the Miner's Strike, the Poll Tax, the whole Thatcher driven violent class warfare; they would remember it all and they voted for her spiritual heirs.

I think though that people can also be nicer about agriculture and fishing, manufacturing etc... there's an element in the UK and other countries that such work means you aren't intelligent in any way and less of value (see the bollocks about unskilled aka cleaning / agricultural / hotel etc job immigrants etc...) as a person.

It's hard graft and I couldn't handle a cow or fishing ship, a bit of respect for each other is good too.

I'm just 3 generations away from farmers and my partner two.

Something I’ve been mulling over, there’s never been a landslide majority government during my adult life when I was engaged with politics and don’t have any experience of it... Are we fully at the mercy of Boris and the Tory government for the next 5 years? Is there anything the opposition can do and what can we do other than try and help the people in need in our local communities?

Free higher education, opportunity, investment in public services and resultant true social mobility would help solve these problems, I believe.

Not being credulous gullible morons who believe unquestioningly everything they read in the paper and on Facebook might help too.

Still voted en masse for brexit as they believed the utter crap system that deals with subsidies is the fault of the EU

Which it isn't. The EU has fined DEFRA for being so shit at its job. Any farmer who has half a clue should know this. I do, and IANAF.

Labour, Lib Dems and Greens must all consider their positions now. Reset and form a credible opposition that works together to hold the Tories to account.

There are many, many pitfalls ahead for a Tory govt that is properly owning Brexit now.

There's absolutely no guarantee that those things will happen. Economic demise is probably 50/50

50/50 based on what? The economic profession does not share that view. As @dammit says, this will make us poorer, compared to not leaving. What isn't clear is how much

I've done menial work all my life. Labouring, farm work, kitchens, restaurants, bar work, cleaning toilets, cleaning houses and now I fix bikes.

It's all I have known.

What you've mentioned I've experienced, in terms of how you are treated.

I'm not making value judgements on people based on class or education. Just that class and education have divided this country.

There you go. That'll really help.

Give yourself a pat on the fucking back.

We need someone or something to really unify the electorate. I have no idea what the fuck that would look like.

I gather beer and skittles have proved successful traditionally. Or bread and circuses if you have a classical education and know Juvenal.

That'll really help.

I agree with the implicit sarcasm, it doesn't help at all. However, if a very large number of people are going to vote in a way which is obviously and demonstrably going to make their lives worse, despite the fact that a lot of other people have spent a lot of time and effort trying to explain this to them, what else can you do except give the fuck up and resort to alcohol and cynicism?

Is there anything the opposition can do and what can we do other than try and help the people in need in our local communities?

1983, Thatcher had a majority with 362 seats, the Poll-Tax in her manifesto and a mandate from the country to deliver it. She won again in 1987, and brought the poll-tax into operation in 1989, the poll-tax riots were a feature of 1990, and Thatcher was challenged by Heseltine and resigned shortly afterwards, with John Major taking over.

I think the lesson is that rioting works, or at least has done in the past.

This government can and will do as they please. The Lords and the Supreme Court could provide some checks in the short term, but likely both will be neutered (one by further stuffing with Tory peers; the other by whatever Cummings has planned as revenge for overturning the illegal prorogue).

The roundly vilified Michael Foot was leading in the Polls as Thatchers 1st Recession hit and the increase in VAT from 8 to 15% bit.
Cue the Falklands, '83 GE and a Tory majority of 144.

I'm not sure the Argentinians are going to be up for a rematch though, despite the rhetoric.

I benefitted from free university education and maintenance grants and when I graduated I had debts of less than £250.

You are old.

Oh lord, going to numb myself with booze over Xmas.

there’s never been a landslide majority government during my adult life when I was engaged with politics and don’t have any experience of it...

You are young

There's actually not that many years between the two of you take the closest end of either, they just seem worlds apart now.

I think the CumTories are setting up the Diego Garcians as the next bogeymen.

Are we fully at the mercy of Boris and the Tory government for the next 5 years?

Kind of. My hunch is that what they can do will depend largely on the degree to which the right wing press is prepared to own the inevitable broken promises and failures of brexit. As things go wrong in the economy (and they absolutely will to one degree or the other) the opposition have the opportunity to hold the Tory's (and brexiteers' more generally) feet to the fire about how badly things are going. They could claim that they would have done better or (perhaps less productively) that it's clear that brexit was sold on a set of lies by the very people now in power.

The problem is that I very much doubt that we're going to see a headline in the Sun saying "Oh shit, we made a massive fucking mistake" What I fear will happen is that the press will play up the sense of aggrievement and victimhood based on nationalism and exceptionalism, essentially claiming that other countries are not giving us what we're owed. This of course will be utter bollocks, since they owe us nothing. Brexit is (fallaciously) sold as in our national interest, and other countries will act in theirs to squeeze us as hard as they can. Even worse, the finger will be pointed squarely at immigrants and "remainers" and the claim will be made that somehow the country is still be held back by them and would ascend meteorically if only we hadn't interfered/would stop interfering. That potentially could become even more toxic than things have already.

So in short, the opposition(s) in parliament, can call out the Tories on their broken promises but it will count for fuck all if the Tories don't fear for their reputation because the press and the public can't admit that the whole endeavour (both Brexit and the Tory government) was always going to be painful and both contain epic levels of ideologically-driven bullshit.