General Election 2019

Which seats would Labour have won if the LD's didn't exist?

This is a task which I do not have the emotional fortitude to take up.

https://interactive.guim.co.uk/2019/12/ukelection2019-data/prod/snap/full.json is one dump of the data

Will try and quickly knock something up to work it out.

Which seats would Labour have won if the LD's didn't exist?

Mine, Chipping Barnet.

Tory majority of 1,212. 5,932 LibDem votes. Also 1,288 Green votes so one could point at them equally.

79 but...

25 were taken by Labour and if the LD votes had gone to the Tories the Tories would have won in those constituencies

6 were taken by SNP and the LD votes could have helped the Tories in 4 and Labour in 2

1 were taken by PC and the LD votes could have helped the Tories take it (Ceredigion)

Which leaves 47 taken by the Tories. 3 where the votes could have helped the SNP overcome the Tories, 44 where the LibDem's votes could have helped Labour win.

Another pinch of salt is that the Lib Dems were sometimes the largest runner up, e.g.

Cambridgeshire South taken by Con (31015) with majorty of 23212 and Lib Dem took 28111 votes, next party was Lab with 7803 votes

[The (majority) quoted is the majority over the next non-LibDem party.]

Dangerous to play what if but...

364 - 47 = 317 (i.e. below 326 seats needed to win)

(1 seat still to come in, St Ives in Cornwall, which will probably remain Tory, even though it was only a 312 majority in 2017.) [EDIT] St Ives declared and is a Tory win with a majority big enough that one other party's votes wouldn't have helped.

The 47 are: berdeenshire West & Kincardine, Birmingham Northfield, Blyth Valley, Bolton North East, Bridgend, Burnley, Bury North, Bury South, Cambridgeshire South, Carshalton & Wallington, Cheadle, Cheltenham, Chingford & Woodford Green, Chipping Barnet, Cities of London & Westminster, Clwyd South, Delyn, Derby North, Dewsbury, Dumfries & Galloway, Durham North West, Esher & Walton, Finchley & Golders Green, Gedling, Guildford, Hazel Grove, Hendon, Heywood & Middleton, High Peak, Hitchin & Harpenden, Keighley, Kensington, Leigh, Lewes, Moray, Reading West, Rushcliffe, Southport, Stoke-on-Trent Central, Truro & Falmouth, Warrington South, Watford, Wimbledon, Winchester, Wolverhampton South West, Wycombe, York Outer