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trend in polling points to a hung parliament as base case. that's only looking at the yougov MRP which has lots of dubious assumptions. correct for those assumptions and picture looks a lot rosier.
then throw in massive tactical voting + electoral map a lot better in 2019 than it was in 2017 + a lot bigger/more offensive ground game + a more canny and well-resourced momentum + HQ not actively working against the campaign this time + tories' electoral map has some severe structural weaknesses. I was optimistic at the beginning of the campaign; I'm even more optimistic now. as mike pence said on the eve of poll (during 2016 US election): "this doesn't feel like second place."
happy for you to take receipts and throw them in my face as we descend into the hard brexit hellscape at 10pm tomorrow, if you like
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cozzzzzzzz
we're going to win