I combined with cohort population data (from statista) to get the expectation of actual votes per party which lumped together comes out at Conservative/Brexit/UKIP (48.6%) Labour/Lib Dem and the rest (51.4%)
The take-away is that the cohorts 18-49y, particularly below 39y hold a huge potential for swing vote if their voting intention is correct as they are heavily under-represented relative to the older cohorts
Increasing their turnout to the same level as the older cohorts swings that split to 46.4% vs 53.6% so Labour et al would do well to focus very hard on mobilising those age groups to actually vote if they don't won't to be disenfranchised
NB The survey itself indicates a likely significant under-intention to vote as a whole as the turnout intention overall is 59.8% compared to 68.8% for last GE and 72% for the referendum and previous surveys suggest a higher likelihood of turnout (see https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jul/09/young-people-referendum-turnout-brexit-twice-as-high) which would suggest that split is more likely to widen to the survey result
This is interesting from yougov polls
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/11/07/brexit-these-four-charts-show-how-the-uk-election-could-play-out.html
I combined with cohort population data (from statista) to get the expectation of actual votes per party which lumped together comes out at Conservative/Brexit/UKIP (48.6%) Labour/Lib Dem and the rest (51.4%)
The take-away is that the cohorts 18-49y, particularly below 39y hold a huge potential for swing vote if their voting intention is correct as they are heavily under-represented relative to the older cohorts
Increasing their turnout to the same level as the older cohorts swings that split to 46.4% vs 53.6% so Labour et al would do well to focus very hard on mobilising those age groups to actually vote if they don't won't to be disenfranchised
NB The survey itself indicates a likely significant under-intention to vote as a whole as the turnout intention overall is 59.8% compared to 68.8% for last GE and 72% for the referendum and previous surveys suggest a higher likelihood of turnout (see https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jul/09/young-people-referendum-turnout-brexit-twice-as-high) which would suggest that split is more likely to widen to the survey result