• labour's electoral map after the 2017 GE was an order of magnitude better than the position they were in after the 2015 GE. the 2015 result was basically like the 1983 result inasmuch as it basically wrote off the next GE before it had happened - you have to understand the 2017 GE in that context.

    following 2015, the tories only had a few seats with small majorities and there were lots with fortress-sized positions. it was a similar position in scotland where the SNP had lots of seats with super-majorities following 2015... after 2017, there are lots of vulnerabilities dotted around the map for LAB to go after. you'd think (with JC's control more established over the party apparatus) the next campaign in scotland would be run more on the front foot and less like an edinburgh south by-election

    to just become the largest party following 201, LAB needed a swing of 5.4 percent. contrast that with the electoral map as it stands now - a 5.4% swing would give them a majority of 1 (if we assume the polls are right in scotland and LAB make no gains.) if they do make gains in scotland, on a uniform swing, 5.4% gives them a majority of 28.

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