EU referendum, brexit and the aftermath

Have Labour said how they're going to negotiate the terms of our new deal without leaving first, something which has been expressly ruled out by the EU from the very start, or are we taking it to mean that they'll present us with the withdrawal agreement that May agreed, with a jaunty new hat, vs Remain?

I actually agree with Jo Swinson when she says that if the Lib Dems win the election outright then that would be a suitable proxy for an overwhelming vote to remain. Does anyone really think that's possible though?

No, I think we're looking at another Tory/LD coalition as the next government.

EU have said if the red lines change the WA can change no?

Probably not. More likely a surge in the Lib Dem vote, but only a small increase in seats due to our shitty non-PR voting system.

The WA is not the future relationship - it's how we leave. The best Labour will be able to do is some warm words in the PD and May's WA, maybe with a new name.

Even if Corbyn committed to staying in the CU that'd require the backstop - only staying in the Single Market and Customs Union would obviate that requirement, and given that a) Corbyn has ruled that out and b) the next government might cancel SM/CU the EU would be mugs to not insist on the backstop as currently constituted.

What exactly is the mandate when a full-blown Remain party and a full-blown No Deal party enter into a coalition? If I had interpret that, I would probably have to conclude that The People want 5 more years of stasis

They'll have jettisoned Johnson by then, so who knows what the Tory policy is - doesn't really matter as the price of the coalition will be a referendum due to the LD's revoke promise if they got a majority.

I think some Frankenstein Lab/Lib/SNP agreement on the basis of PV + supply-and-confidence-until-some-later-date could be equally as likely, although judging by the performance of the anti-no-dealers over the last few months it would be an absolute clusterfuck.

Who knows. If the judges go against Boris tomorrow morning maybe that could be the start of the end for him - No Deal blocked, Brexit party obliteration. Polls seem to suggest voters will desert him if he fails to get us out.

I think today’s Supreme Court judgement will say Johnson was and is allowed to prorogue parliament, but there should be a time limit.

I also think this doesn’t really matter as he’s going to have to apply for an extension on the 19th and then resign.

Labour won’t go into coalition with Corbyn so as long as he stays it’s a coalition with the Tories, who I think will get ~280 seats.

Labour won’t go into coalition with Corbyn so as long as he stays it’s a coalition with the Tories,

Do you just make this up? Everybody says they won't go into a coalition before an election, not just labour. Corbyn already proposed a coalition to form a gnu.

GNU isn’t government.

That aside, I think it’s doubtful that the LD’s would accept Corbyn as leader, and I don’t think Corbyn would stand down.

going to be hilarious* when the LDs go into coalition with the CONs again

*type II hilarious

Isn’t the Labour neutrality thing so that they can form a coalition with either the party of leave or the party of remain without breaking their own policy on Brexit?

it is (1) so they do not alienate parts of their electoral coalition (primarily ‘leavers’ in CON/LAB marginals in the midlands) and (2) a reflection of the broad spectrum of opinion within the party (which is a function of 1). you can argue its merits but that’s the rationale

personally I feel like we’re all in this mess because the tories wouldn’t face down the headbangers on their own side. I don’t want labour to make the same mistake

It's also based on the assumption that Leavers in the Midlands will vote Labour if Labour refuses to state a policy on Leaving, which I think is rather hopeful.

I don’t know but I would assume that

• labour will have a very strong campaigning machine in those seats
  
• they also have deep, persistent cultural roots
  
• “leave” is not as strong a cultural identity as many in the bubble think it is
  
• the conservative party currently look hemmed in and likely unable to neuter the BXP, which will split the properly headbanger vote
  
  

can the conservatives put on enough votes to replace all those they lose to the LDs in places like the chilterns? doubtful

There would, however, have to be a second referendum in this situation. All other aspects would be dire.

I’m reconciled to the fact labour support a 2nd referendum now - I personally think it’s a folly to offer one when we have not stacked the cards* to ensure we win but there we go

at least the offer (good deal Vs remain) is better than what some others were touting (eg no deal Vs remain)

*rectified all the underlying structural / cultural / economic issues which contributed to the last leave victory

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49807401

BBC late to the news party here, but the NCA is dropping criminal charges against Banks and co. So overspending and being fined by the Electoral Commission will just be another business cost.

If there’s one thing that inspires the undecided to vote, it’s a technical exercise in messaging.

personally I feel like we’re all in this mess because the tories wouldn’t face down the headbangers on their own side

This sounds similar to the current Labour position tbh - they're explicitly not facing down either group on the side of the divide.

What do we think the LDs and SNP will get- 100 seats between them?

how many SNP seats are there?
I can't believe there will be 50 Lib Dems. Many of the new MPs they've gained may lose their seats.
TBH, with the chance we'll leave without a deal still likely who knows. if that happens the LD are sunk.

SNP will add 12 of the conservative seats (paul masterton may hang on in east ren) but (looking at the margins in key labour target seats) could lose 8-10 seats to labour. I predict 37. over 40 would be a good night

LDs - harder to say. mid-30s maybe? 50 would be a GREAT night looking at the electoral map and swings needed