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Isn't there a big variable which would massively impact all of these forecasts, which is when Brexit actually happens? ie wouldn't most of these forecasts pre March 2018 have gone on the assumption that we would have left at that point?
Or is the probability of actually leaving on a given date incorporated into the forecasts?
abr-
idk. But they are all valid questions, as well as what Brexit actually looks like. For eg I doubt a Norway-style model would be that devastating - Turkey-style? less positive.
I think whatshischops at the FT makes a good point about over blown forecasts, though.
When I chat to pro-Brexit people Project Fear is often brought up along with FTSE increase, lower inflation, and increased employment. When I point out that we haven't left yet, the stock response is basically "bollocks, that's not what Remain said. It was Armageddon the day after the referendum".
Honestly I can't remember if Project Fear did say that. But it highlights the issue with overstating your case, or crying wolf depending on your view.
hugo7
Treasury not looking great
