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If parliament passes May with NI backstop then would there need to be an extension? We’d be straight into transition having left.
Johnson would be able to say we had left - but the method would allow Brexit party to campaign against him for not leaving properly.
I guess the other parties would have to campaign on future relationship then, but I’m unsure Johnson would have got man of the people against the elites story that (we think) he wants to campaign on.
If that scenario does play out we then face the problem that the transition is around 7 years too short to sort out our future relationship, so we’ll need an extension to the transition- and before that a mechanism for said extension.
Dammit-
re Extension - not sure. I don't know if there is time post-summit / pre-31st Oct to get a deal fully ratified, but you may be right.
In that scenario, assuming Johnson still wants GE, the extreme frothers would go to BXP, but the vast majority of normal leavers would stick with Tories and results would be similar to polls now I think. Libs support would maybe evaporate and we'd be back to mostly 2 party politics. Maybe Tory slim majority?
But, yeah - transition would go on forever alongside the sudden realisation we're a bit worse off/not fully out (depending on your viewpoint). And Northern Ireland? Who knows.
Shit show.
villa-ru
So looks like there are a couple of routes now...
Most likely (IMO) - Johnson paints lipstick on May's deal (NI only backstop), bins the DUP and brings it back for a vote after the summit and when parliament is back. ERG will still be against, as will Lib Dems, but I think a vote on it would be incredibly close. All down to Corbyn's control over Labour. I call Brexit passing and mini extension to ratify etc and we're out.
Or - Fails to get a new deal, has to ask for extension. GE in November, Brexit party split the Tory vote, hung result, Lib/Lab/SNP (or some combo) government. 2nd ref - again nail-bitingly close. I call remain and revoke happening.
But though either vote could go either way, I reckon we're probably getting towards it being resolved.