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If parliament passes May with NI backstop then would there need to be an extension? We’d be straight into transition having left.
Johnson would be able to say we had left - but the method would allow Brexit party to campaign against him for not leaving properly.
I guess the other parties would have to campaign on future relationship then, but I’m unsure Johnson would have got man of the people against the elites story that (we think) he wants to campaign on.
If that scenario does play out we then face the problem that the transition is around 7 years too short to sort out our future relationship, so we’ll need an extension to the transition- and before that a mechanism for said extension.
Dammit
@villa-ru
So looks like there are a couple of routes now...
Most likely (IMO) - Johnson paints lipstick on May's deal (NI only backstop), bins the DUP and brings it back for a vote after the summit and when parliament is back. ERG will still be against, as will Lib Dems, but I think a vote on it would be incredibly close. All down to Corbyn's control over Labour. I call Brexit passing and mini extension to ratify etc and we're out.
Or - Fails to get a new deal, has to ask for extension. GE in November, Brexit party split the Tory vote, hung result, Lib/Lab/SNP (or some combo) government. 2nd ref - again nail-bitingly close. I call remain and revoke happening.
But though either vote could go either way, I reckon we're probably getting towards it being resolved.