EU referendum, brexit and the aftermath

Bill forcing BJ to ask for and accept an extension to end of Jan 2020.
BJ refuses to ask for it so needs to call election. That needs support of opposition due to FTPA. Opposition probably refuse to support election until extension agreed. All a bit unsure after that...
For the EU agreeing to an extension means a) no-deal avoided for a bit longer, b) general election which might result in Labour-based coalition and then probably 2nd referendum.

With an election basically a dead cert I suppose they're hoping that'll produce some change.

Obviously polls are suggesting another hung parliament though, because what else did we expect from 2019 politics? Can you imagine the absolute clusterfuck if we end up back in this same position???

(Massive pinch of salt required for those polls of course)

If that happens maybe they might say "no more, you now need to either vote for the WA, revoke or leave with no deal", or force us to have a second ref. or something

The EU doesn't need the economic damage resulting from a hard-brexit.

They also don't need the nonsense of the UK, but they have to be seen as accomodating and reasonable as well to the other parties that want to try an exit in their countries.

So I'd say another extension incoming...which in a way can help Remain as the longer this nonsense goes on, the stronger the argument "remain is: brexit is over" is. But the longer the radicalization tactics of "Dom and Dommer" (stolen from Crace) go on.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/boris-johnson-prorogue-parliament-brexit-dominic-cummings-email-court-scotland-a9089911.html

Cummings doesn't like Javid and so he has little chance. Stewart will probably be expelled. Rees-Mogg, sadly is the most likely.

Starmer and Thornberry are non starters. I would put it between Rebecca Long-Bailey and Clive Lewis with RLB more likely.

Not sure about the options for next GE. Almost certainly 2019. Cannot be later that 2022 unless Cummings becomes very adept at the peroguing business.

I heard a guy at a table next to mine in a restaurant, earnestly explaining that the first thing JC would do would be to claim all farmland in the country as a national farm and pay nothing to the farmers for it.

Collectivisation innit. Worked in the Ukraine. #StarveTheArchers

I don't understand why there are no rumblings in the Labour Party to get a new leader.

The Blair wing tried that in 2016 and failed heavily. They would fail again.

So the suggestion I hear is:

1) No Deal happens. Chaos ensues.
2) BJ calls immediate election and with no Brexit Party to split the vote, gains a Tory majority
3) BJ proposes a revised version of the Withdrawal Agreement that is pretty much the same other than it shifts the backstop border to the Irish sea, upholding the Good Friday Agreement. DUP vote against it but pretty much everyone else votes for it
4) EU accept the WA and No Deal stops. We finally begin negotiating trade deals.

An essential element of the WA was the two year transition period. This would be destroyed by (1) above

That's me caught up.

A friend of mine, who is otherwise a bright chap, thinks that the first thing that Corbyn would do as PM would be to raid 50% of all company cash reserves as a one off cash boost.

It's bonkers.

New poll shows that if snap election SNP on course to regain 17 seats, Labour losing 6 and Tories 11.

Ouch

What's that about needing a mandate for a new Independence referendum?

Oh dear of dear oh dear.

https://www.businessinsider.com/brexit-dominic-cummings-took-235000-in-eu-handouts-for-his-farm-2019-8

I'm sure some will interpret this as a sign of how much he believes in Brexit...i.e he is happy to forgo £18k a year in EU subsidies.

New poll shows that if snap election SNP on course to regain 17 seats, Labour losing 6 and Tories 11.

Ouch

What's that about needing a mandate for a new Independence referendum?

Jo Swinson's seat is also very unsafe. She lost it n 2015 and only narrowly regained it n 2017. Must say, I wouldn't be sad to see her go.

IndyRef2 is almost a certainty as is independence. It is hard to think of a reason why they should not. Of course, that would mean that the BxP/Tory Alliance would have a fairly clean run in England.

I dunno how about the third to a half of those who don't want it.

It's a bit hold my beer whilst we have a referendum, no?

Yeah I don't see her keeping it. Lots of antipathy for her up here based on previous performances as constituency MP even before moving to Hertfordshire, and we're sick of caretaker party leaders that treat their Scottish seats as a stepping stone to the UK stage... Glad we're rid of the media construct that was Ruth the Mooth Johnstone though.

Boris is making a statement in Parliament now, he still looks a bit shellshocked. Pretty crazy in there.

You can watch on parliamentlive.tv

Tory MP just defected in middle of the speech, walking across to Lib Dem benches

Tory MP just defected in middle of the speech, walking across to Lib Dem benches

Inconsiderate to do it while I am having a sneak watch of the Vuelta. Difficult to multitask on the sneaky peaks.

Yeah I missed that, got it minimised as am at work

There goes the majority then!!

Also clearly no one's got any faith in the ChUnKis surviving

Just woke up from a nap and read that as defecated. Guess it amounts to the same thing today.

#madlad

Wow. That's a stunt.

Well, that escalated quickly :)

All popping off. Ian Dunt is good as ever:
https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1168901484618104832

Dunno if that gets to the right part in the tweet thread but it's worth a look