EU referendum, brexit and the aftermath

Mooted a GE could be held on 14 October... anniversary of the Battle of Hastings! That did not end end well for the English party.

I hate the 14th October, always feel rough as fuck.

BJ doesn’t want no-deal, I reckon. He probably knows it’s mad and that his party would likely tear itself asunder and spend years in the wilderness if it happened on their watch. He can’t stop it himself, however, so he wants the opposition parties and Tory rebels to do it for him - hence the provocations of the last few days. Then he can go into an election with the narrative that the EU refused to negotiate, and Labour/LDs obstructed Brexit. Election > Tory majority > he gets on with implementing whatever type of Brexit it is that he actually wants.

Us normal people would be appalled at having to make a choice between no deal Brexit and regular full fat Brexit, as it would be calamitous to thousands of people; however Boris Johnson is already PM, and he’s rich, so he’s not worried about the fall out. He’s achieved all his goals and now he just wants to ride out being PM for as long as possible, which means that Johnson wants the sort of Brexit that will let Johnson be PM afterwards.

Will it work if he calls an election? Possibly. He might be able to get enough people to fall on their swords for a while, as the civil service is unanimous in saying he is a shit boss and probably can’t run a country for long. All he has to do is appease the ERG and they’ll keep him in... for a while.

Ok makes sense, assuming EU allows the GE extension, which I think they will.

I don't see the Tories landing a majority though... any contested seats that remain can win will be mostly lost.

He seems to be blowing with the wind atm, the backstop is here to stay. He will know that too, so he'll something else after the GE?

Why? Is it your birthday on the 13th?

Oh, you remembered. You didn't have to get me anything, but it was nice of you to do so.

Ok. But what are you getting me? We are birthday buddies.

It's my brothers on 31st, I used to think Halloween was the worst thing about that.

He seems to be blowing with the wind atm

Not just atm, this is his entire political career.

(and probably about the only way he know how to run his private life as well - but this is my own speculation)

The problem with this is what would BJ campaign on? Will he say if he wins, he'll re-negotiate or go ahead with no deal just after the GE? If the former, he'll ship votes to the BP if the latter, he still fucks the country up.

If the former, he'll ship votes to the BP

But if he's already won the GE, the next election is likely far enough away he'll think he can deal with that before then and I'd bet the BP will have faded away once Brexit (any kind of Brexit) is done?

Especially if he can cut some deal with Farage to move him away and give him a cushy job -maybe somewhere he can still appear on Question Time and have a rant and piss us all off every so-often.

So by the end of the week we'll have either no deal or a GE, then by the end of the month(ish) either no deal or a referendum.

At least this seems like progress!

I was slightly reassured listening to a brexit party mep (I know... Bear with me). He said that unless Johnson campaigns for an all out no-deal brexit, they will run against them. Can't see the conservatives doing that, so votes will be lost to the bxp. If he comes out for no-deal, they'll ship voters to the lib Dems /tory rejects. Less chance of a majority either way. (though always the nightmare prospect of tory/bxp coalition) shudder.

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So the suggestion I hear is:

1) No Deal happens. Chaos ensues.
2) BJ calls immediate election and with no Brexit Party to split the vote, gains a Tory majority
3) BJ proposes a revised version of the Withdrawal Agreement that is pretty much the same other than it shifts the backstop border to the Irish sea, upholding the Good Friday Agreement. DUP vote against it but pretty much everyone else votes for it
4) EU accept the WA and No Deal stops. We finally begin negotiating trade deals.

BoJo is waiting to see his MPs play their cards. He can adjust his position very easily once the winner is in clear view.

I don't think no deal will happen. As idiotic as Boris is he must have read the reports. He's banking on being stopped ("oh whoops, they stopped me, what a shame, I tried sooooo hard") and will get some deal through with his newfound majority.

If we'd not had the snap election I am sure we'd have had the WA pass a year ago with backstop border moved to the Irish Sea. All of this has happened because the DUP had to be brought in.

Having said all that I have now got an entire cupboard for my Brexit stockpile. Panic buying is what I will be worried about

Didn't he bank on being stopped the last time too?

I don't see why he'd wait til after no deal (though none of us have any idea what he might be planning). That seems like massive backfire potential if it goes really badly. All he has to do to neuter the Brexit party is say he'll go for no deal with no regard for you know, actual truthfulness and he'll get the votes. Left/remain cannot possibly get their shit together in time to prevent the vote being split.

Which "last time" are you referring to?

If he goes for no deal as an election manifesto he won't get a majority.

He waits til after No Deal to neuter the Brexit Party. He has kept to his word and got us out by Oct 31st. Didn't back down, etc etc etc.

He'd be gambling on anti-Corbyn feeling outweighing people pissed off about No Deal.

Realistically, once Brexit happens, where will Remain voters who are not natural Corbynites go? The Lib Dems are pushing themselves as the Stop Brexit party, but as far as I can see they don't have any story after that.

Yes that would work for him, but...

Then all that needs to happen is good old fashioned violence in NI and the USA won't offer a tradedeal either. Then what? Back to the EU with...what?

No deal brexit and untrained for NI border police = deaths. ROI does not need or want that, but it can go wrong badly quickly, we had two bombs near the border aimed at police.

He may go that far cos he doesn't care, not out if malice. But a GE isn't sorted in a few days who knows what happens in the chaos.

The UK won't be forgiven if people get killed.

Or he gets rid of the DUP after he calls a GE 14 October with an extension (or a last minute deal passes Westminster?) and offers an NI only backstop which the EU will probably be fine with and has NI support.

I suppose I'm assuming that riots, food/medicine shortages, cancelled flights, pound falling through the floor etc. would change people's minds, and they'd realise they'd been duped and there's no way Corbyn could ever be worse than that. But clearly I've learned nothing over the last three years because if this has shown us anything it's that Brexiteers are not bound by reality when they make political decisions.

Realistically, once Brexit happens, where will Remain voters who are not natural Corbynites go?

Scotland :)

Surely if Corbyn loses again that's the end of him. I have no idea who the Labour party membership would go for though, hopefully someone with a bit more potency. Someone who can hoover up the centrists from the Tories/Lib Dems.