EU referendum, brexit and the aftermath

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49552403

Corbyn happy with a GE.

Sigh.

I think tactical voting will come into force again, but that will also cost Labour votes. In a fight between a Labour brexiter and the LibDems they will lose.

Interesting.

I figured his goal was to remove internal obstacles to realising Brexit - be this vetoing a bad deal he brings back or the freedom of no deal.

Personally I think now is a good time to call an election as they currently have no majority, so it's almost a case of "what's the worst...etc...". Yes he'd loose his job, but if ever there was a time to go all-in, it's now.

Obviously there is a chance they come out with the same split or an insignificant majority. But Corbyn has worked so hard to throw away all his political capital and momentum, it seems hard to image they wouldn't at least get back to the heady days of a poultry Cameron majority.

8 redundancies of 20 staff.

Just heard they got broken into on Friday and had all their computers nicked. That's them done for, I fear.

it is difficult to see any other outcome than a tory government

"some may fear a Corbyn premiership more" than a no-deal Brexit.

It's so easy to get locked into a liberal lefty London echo chamber, but you really can't underestimate the palpable fear among so many in the rest of the country of Corbyn becoming PM and JMcD as Chancellor.

Clarke recently volunteered himself to be
caretaker leader if a GE was called and lost.

If early election made no-deal Brexit inevitable, Labour would oppose
it, says shadow minister

Our mission here is to to prevent no deal. We do want a general election ... Our mission is very clear, and it is about preventing no deal. If that means that a general election cannot happen at that particular point, then stopping no deal must come first ... This isn’t for the benefit of the Labour party. This is about preventing mass unemployment.

I think (won't work in -all- cases as if your other candidate is rubbish) tactical voting will work out like that

Conservative hardliners VS Labour: No. (your example)
VS Libdems: May swing vote to Libdems.
VS Brexit party in a heavy Leave area: BXP
Labour loyal vs LibDems: No
Labour remain vs Libdems and a Labour brexiter: LibDems
Libdems vs Labour/Tory Brexit hardliner: Labour
People that can't be bothered to vote/could not vote last time due to age: Mostly remain

The tories lost their absolute majority last time, the Brexit faithful won't rescue them. But, May also made other mistakes.

Some seats were won on Labour promising a "softer" Brexit. But some also cos May said things people didn't like about pensions, though so do some Tories so that may work against them again?

So I don't see a good majority and the DUP won't be there to rescue them this time if they also lose seats. Because the swing from Labour to BXP is very small. People are going from Conservatives to LibDems and Labour to LibDems mostly (Lord Ashcroft polls) combined with people going out to knock on doors...I just don't see how they will win this.

It's going to be nasty and unpleasant though if Cummings is going to run the campaign, and NI won't be any more pleasant with all the bonus sectarianism that got worse due to Brexit...

Corbyn is not the shadow minister...again the messaging of the Labour party is confusing.

Aside from the Corbyn wants a GE/accepts his Brexit.

Corbyn is not the shadow minister...again the messaging of the Labour party is confusing.

How about this, then?

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/sep/02/jeremy-corbyn-labour-election-northern-vote-no-deal-brexit

In a wide-ranging speech that focused heavily on the party’s manifesto pledges and support for the north of England, the Labour leader said his priority was to legislate to stop no deal by teaming up with other parties.

There's no surprise (many in) Labour want an election. I'm not entirely convinced it's a bad thing. It's really about how it ends up happening that's a concern.

I think its the reinterpretation of the messaging by the media that's confusing...

I think Johnson will win the coming GE, either directly or through a coalition with Brexit.

Corbyn is seen as a remainer by leavers and a leaver by remainers, and a Marxist by many - Labour won’t win.

I'm not 100% convinced of that. He did well last time and while it's easy to imagine Johnson campaigning well it's also easy to imagine him blustering around and putting people off. He's hard to bet against with how populist everything seems to be going but no-one knows exactly why he wants what he wants or trusts him on his given reasons, corbyns position of 'principle' could do okay against that.

Also though, I'm not 100% convinced of anything anymore.

He did well last time

Oh shtaaaaaaahp

What I find astonishing about the JC phobia in the country is that we have had the last three years and still people believe that a J Corbyn and McDonnald government will be able to unilaterally enact Marxist atrocities. Surely what we have learnt is that doing controversial things requires broad parliamentary support?

I heard a guy at a table next to mine in a restaurant, earnestly explaining that the first thing JC would do would be to claim all farmland in the country as a national farm and pay nothing to the farmers for it.

WTAF?

Yes - tbh I'm not a huge fan, but it's astonshing how good a job has been done on him.

I was talking about Brexit with my parents, who very quickly went down the route of "well, we have to make sure Corbyn doesn't get in".

I'm not sure what they expect him to do? Within the first weeks of coming to power I assume they expect him to do worse than precipitating massive unemployment, the destruction of all diplomatic standings, a run on the currency, widespread protests etc

Even my parents, who are massive lefties and do a lot of involved charitable work, think that Corbyn’s policies haven’t changed since the 60s. The Tory media has effectively poisoned the well

think that Corbyn’s policies haven’t changed since the 60s

Yes - it's something to do with the fact that the bin men will go on strike within his first month in power I think. Or something like that.

I think Corbyn best result will prove to be 2017 when remainers thought he was on their side, I don’t think he’d come close to the 2017 result now

I don't understand why there are no rumblings in the Labour Party to get a new leader.

I'm not sure what they expect him to do? Within the first weeks of coming to power I assume they expect him to do worse than precipitating massive unemployment, the destruction of all diplomatic standings, a run on the currency, widespread protests etc

Not sure if JC or Boris....

Because as often exhibited here, coming second by someway is somehow doing well and deserved of another chance.

Errrm because JC is propped up by momentum and let's face it the labour centrists have tried and failed in the not too distant future.

Personally I think that Jeremy Corbyn is a principled but naive politician, unfortunately that naivety makes it pretty easy for some sections of the press to paint his politics as somewhere to the left of Lenin. In reality his policies aren't actually that left wing compared to some mainstream left wing politicians elsewhere in Europe or other historical leaders of the labour party.

It's nuts isn't it.

A Conservative party member I know, was talking to me about this the other day. He's clearly not a fan, but even he was bemused by the fact that so many of the party members genuinely believe the UK will turn into Venezuela.

I spend a lot of time on the continent. There are two things that I am frequently asked about when discussing politics (maybe more openly/frequently because of my accent, so seen as a neutral party with some actual experience with you weirdos). Anyway, those questions are:

1) Wtf is up with Brexit?
2) Why do people dislike Corbyn?

The second question may partly be because I spend a disproportionate amount of time in Finland and other Nordic countries. It may also be because these people are all academics. Dirty, dirty, academics.