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I would go with your first XI there, but in reality I think they're very unlikely to make more than two changes - so Archer and Leach for Jimmy and Mo. Every chance they'll only make the one enforced change and give Mo another chance. I wasn't able to watch much but from reports he bowled reasonably well in the first innings?
owl-
I agree that they are likely to do less rather than more, but Smith has shown a bit more aggression in selection than recent history. Ali bowled OK in the first innings, the issue was the second innings when he should have been really challenging to play but just wasn’t. The other thing that may play in his favour is that leach hasn’t bowled much over the last few weeks.
Sam_w
Crazy idea, but not the worst I have read for sure, I agree that Root isn't the best captain, would like to see Buttler given the responsibility, he seems to be Morgans clear second in command in one dayers, and seems to have a good cricketing brain.
For me the questions for the second test are;
Best position for Roy, I think it is 4, so that means (another!) new opener, think Sibley is next cab off the rank
Ali's form, in the past he always seems to be in form with at least bat or ball, at the moment he has neither, so swap him for Leach, who can't bat any worse, probably won't bowl as many magic balls as Ali can, but at least has the ability to be consistent and hold an end up.
Denley: I'm not convinced he is test class, so would drop him, if they move Roy to 4 then Sibley replaces him, if not I would be tempted to bring in Curran, admittedly another all rounder, but I can't see him scoring less runs than Denley.
Could also question dropping Bairstow, either giving Buttler the gloves (doesn't really work as there is no other specialist batsman pushing for inclusion) or a straight swap for Foakes. I'm giving him another chance though.
So my teams would be one of;
Burns
Sibley
Root
Roy
Buttler
Stokes
Bairstow
Woakes
Archer
Leach
Broad
or;
Burns
Roy
Root
Stokes (higher as he will bowl less with Curran in, and has shown good form)
Buttler
Curran
Bairstow
Woakes
Archer
Leach
Broad