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@Dammit
Of the seats that Johnson has now, how many would flip to LD in a GE, and how many would flip to BXP I think is the question, and how many Labour seats would do the same?
Boris could see off the threat of the BXP, but in so doing (by tacking further and further to the right) he pushes more moderate voters toward the LD's.
Question therefore becomes what's the win rate vs the loss rate for this.
If he tacks back toward the middle he's going to lose the ERG and the DUP and be as paralysed as May was, so thats not an option, but he has to increase his majority significantly enough to be able to ignore both the ERG/DUP, which strikes me as unlikely, unless he's counting on Labour seats going Blue due to a high % of Leavers.