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I fear that Johnson will win. He seems to be keeping a low profile. In reality that probably means that he is ruthlessly targeting the decision-makers in one-on-one conversations rather than bothering trying to convert the masses. He knows that he is the strong favourite among members, and the members will be oblivious to the cut and thrust of what happens on social media, and, to some extent, the traditional media too.
boristrump-
strong favourite among members
Do you think so?
The couple of Conservative members I know (one of whom is a BJ fanboy), don't think he is that widely liked by the members. So I'd be really interested to see some numbers either way.
Out of all the hopefuls he's the one I think will play best to the electorate. Ultimately out of a choice between him and JC, it seems pretty certain that BJ would clean up.
hugo7
I still don't think it'll be Johnson. This is their last opportunity to avoid electoral oblivion for the next couple of decades, and whilst the one in the headlines aren't admitting this, I imagine the majority of the Tory MPs know it.