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I still don't think it'll be Johnson. This is their last opportunity to avoid electoral oblivion for the next couple of decades, and whilst the one in the headlines aren't admitting this, I imagine the majority of the Tory MPs know it.
christianSpaceman-
I fear that Johnson will win. He seems to be keeping a low profile. In reality that probably means that he is ruthlessly targeting the decision-makers in one-on-one conversations rather than bothering trying to convert the masses. He knows that he is the strong favourite among members, and the members will be oblivious to the cut and thrust of what happens on social media, and, to some extent, the traditional media too.
boristrump
The timetable for the leadership contest
It then goes out to members on 22nd June, and a new PM is expected w/c 22nd July. That all feels slightly terrifying (in that the prospect of Johnson is becoming all too real...)