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@Fox
I agree with @andyp - lots of variables but that seems as good a guess of what might happen as anything.
Although you can't trust anything TM says, I suspect she might be right about the risk of Brexit not happening at all if her deal doesn't get through.
I don't know who will end up in the final two for the Tory leadership but whichever one is a Brexiteer will win. I suspect it won't be Johnson as the stop Boris brigade within the party are bigger than the pro-Boris grouping.