EU referendum, brexit and the aftermath

i'm voting Green. If not now, when?

I voted green the week before last.

"Change UK"

yeah no.

Why don’t you want to be a CUK?

May has made a 2nd referendum offer vote for MPs but MPs have to agree to her WA first!

Well that's what I think it is.

Maybe this will unjam the whole deadlock?

At the risk of a crappy agreement for further talks passing...but I supposed Labour and others will want hard guarantees that another government isn't going to just bin the results of a confirmatory referendum.

(which it can do and explicitly has the powers to do so)

And Corbyn may also not play ball to bury the Tories even more, but as his proposals are pretty much the "forever backstop" that may put him in a tricky position.

The 10 point offer is ridiculous - the majority are nebulous, meaningless or already demonstrably impossible to deliver. Jokes.

May's proposal to get the Withdrawal Bill through:

So our New Brexit Deal makes a ten-point offer to everyone in Parliament who wants to deliver the result of the referendum.
One - the government will seek to conclude alternative arrangements to replace the backstop by December 2020, so that it never needs to be used.
Two - a commitment that, should the backstop come into force, the government will ensure that Great Britain will stay aligned with Northern Ireland.
Three - the negotiating objectives and final treaties for our future relationship with the EU will have to be approved by MPs.
Four - a new workers’ rights bill that guarantees workers’ rights will be no less favourable than in the EU.
Five - there will be no change in the level of environmental protection when we leave the EU.
Six - the UK will seek as close to frictionless trade in goods with the EU as possible while outside the single market and ending free movement.
Seven - we will keep up to date with EU rules for goods and agri-food products that are relevant to checks at border protecting the thousands of jobs that depend on just-in-time supply chains.
Eight - the government will bring forward a customs compromise for MPs to decide on to break the deadlock.
Nine - there will be a vote for MPs on whether the deal should be subject to a referendum.
And ten – there will be a legal duty to secure changes to the political declaration to reflect this new deal.
All of these commitments will be guaranteed in law – so they will endure at least for this parliament.

There isn't a huge amount in there is my feeling, a lot of it is pretty wooly.

The customs union compromise is only until the next election so could be a short-lived thing.

I suspect she's gambling on another referendum being voted down but, even if that isn't the case, there isn't really a clear indicator as to what the flip side of not voting for May's deal would be. Would it be no deal, remain or, more likely, more talks.

there isn't really a clear indicator as to what the flip side of not voting for May's deal would be.

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Nine - there will be a vote for MPs on whether the deal should be subject to a referendum.

The deal? As in whatever is negotiated after the WA is agreed?

Uh yeah

The deal that would be subject to a referendum would be the future relationship, by agreeing to the WA we'd move out of the EU and into the transition period, if I understand that correctly?

Maybe this will unjam the whole deadlock?

Very unlikely. So far the 'new deal' (I'm sure we've had that phrase before in politics) seems even more unpopular than the previous one.

So nobody wants the WA+
The EU won't renegotiate unless the UK significantly moves (CU and SM no bullshit demands can be sorted) but that also didn't pass.

Will that be revived?

Meanwhile ship UK keeps slowly making water...

I think we’re heading for revocation of article 50. May’s deal won’t pass, and she’ll resign. The Tories will elect a new leader after a bloodbath of a leadership campaign, likely to be Johnson. He’ll try and negotiate a new deal, fail and head for No Deal instead. Labour will call for a vote of no confidence and enough Tories will join them to bring down his government. It’ll be too late to have a general election so Parliament will vote to revoke to avoid a no deal Brexit.

Some of this might not be true. Usual disclaimers apply.

I like the sound of that. Can't see enough tories crossing the house for a vote of no confidence though...

I like the sound of that, but I don’t think BJ will have enough support in the party to make it to the final 2 to become PM.

He’ll try and negotiate a new deal, fail and head for No Deal instead. Labour will call for a vote of no confidence and enough Tories will join them to bring down his government. It’ll be too late to have a general election so Parliament will vote to revoke to avoid a no deal Brexit.

The problem with this bit is if a hard Brexit PM forces parliament to go into recess or whatever preventing MPs from stopping No Deal. No confidence vote is risky.

The problem with this bit is if a hard Brexit PM forces parliament to go into recess or whatever

I'd be surprised if anyone - even the super hard brexiters - would do this. The risk of a disaster and subsequent destruction of their party is not worth the reward of...what? Pleasing the 60k conservative members? They aren't going to be too happy when the medium term effect is complete destruction of their party.

You need to bear in mind that someone like Raab is not in the same frame of reference as we are- he won’t think that it will destroy the party, he thinks it will be a success. He is, by some measures, insane.

He could however think that even a 10% risk of total fucking disaster is not worth taking firmly on the chin (because it would be him alone who takes it, if they arrange something devious to facilitate no-deal) - if it means effigies of him and his immediates will be burned on bonfires for decades to come.

If however parliament sleep walks in to tacitly agreeing to no-deal, then yah, they'll take it, because they won't take the rap for disaster alone.

Come on, look at Grayling- there is literally no penalty for fucking stuff up again and again. Raab could crash the economy and get a peerage in exchange. All of the cretins in government will fail upwards.

Someone like JRM could do it and then piss off to a thinktank or the House of Lords. A lot of them are old and rich...

look at Grayling

British Steel are apparently asking for a £30 million loan to survive. It’s not forthcoming. If they don’t get it ... over 25k jobs disappear. Upon hearing this I instantly thought of Grayling and his expensive idiocy.

Twopointsevenbillion!