In the news

In short I do agree partly with @greenbank but while I would love to believe that yesterday's election is a sign the electorate have changed their mind about Brexit I don't think they have.

Thinking of "the electorate" as a single entity like that is kind of channelling the "will of the people" argument. I would say that a reasonable proportion of the electorate may have moved position (along with a considerable number of young people now able to vote).

The major parties (which seem to want Brexit) don't want another referendum as they know the answer will probably have shifted to the other side. If it was, say, 52/48 in favour of Remain they'd be fucked to know what to do without alienating large percentages of their support either way.

As for the local elections, I'm looking forward to the breakdown of the "OTHER" parties, but mostly interested in the turnout data. I'm guessing it'll be way down:-

• Brexit voters disillusioned by a lack of Brexit, or Government's ability to get Brexit through, and less likely to go out and vote.
  
• Remain voters highly enthusiastic at the opportunity for a resurgence in their cause by voting for pro-Remain parties.
  
  

Has anyone got any up-to-date polling on that?

Nothing on the BritainElects twitter feed about remain/leave polls since Apr 4th.

229 more randoms. Lovely stuff. Bit disappointing the Greens aren't fairing even better. I always thought at a local level should be where they find the easiest support.

I've heard a fair few people saying they're not voting as there weren't any pro-leave candidates in their constituency (they're not viewing Labour/Tory as pro-leave) or the only one is UKIP who have shifted to far to the right for them.

I suspect that Labour and Conservative lost votes both for not delivering Brexit and trying to deliver Brexit.

My guess would be that pro-Brexit votes went to either UKIP, independents (a fair few ex-tories I think) or just too pissed off to vote and pro-Remain votes went to Greens and Lib-Dems.

On top of that the Lib Dems probably recovered some of the seats they lost in 2015 (due to being blamed for the coalition's failings), Greens probably picked up some due to the prominence of climate change at the moment and I'm sure there were a variety of local issues too.

I would say that a reasonable proportion of the electorate may have moved position

I don't think there's much evidence for this. E.g.

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/04/16/most-voters-have-only-become-more-sure-about-their

But yes a cursory Google hasn't found anything super up-to-date.

I define "reasonable" as "enough to change the referendum result in favour of remain if the same referendum question were run today".

Of course, this is just my opinion. It can only be confirmed or refuted if there were to be another referendum run with the same question as before (which is unlikely).

Is this a trick question? If not, it's too easy.

It's important to remember that correlation is not causation...

correlation is not causation..

Reminds me of Tyler Vigens excellent work in this area

loads more splendid stuff here if you're not already familiar with it
http://tylervigen.com/old-version.html

On the assumption TMay cannot bundle any sort of pico-variation of her Withdrawal Agreement through Parliament in the next week or so,
and,
we end up having the chance to vote for MEPs,
do the Local Elections change anything for Us voted-deprived Londoners?
I'm tempted to re-visit the Pyrrhic Green 'victory' of 1989:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1989_European_Parliament_election_in_the_United_Kingdom

Pro-EU, pro-policies to reduce Climate Change,
and,
this time every vote will count.

I guess it's better than being full of microplastics

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/may/02/shrimp-cocaine-found-in-all-tested-in-rural-county-suffolk

I'm on my way to Suffolk right now. Should have bought a shrimping net.

Corbyn gets it though:-

“There’s a huge impetus on every MP – and they’ve all got that message, whether they themselves are leave or remain, or the people across the country – that an arrangement has to be made, a deal has to be done, parliament has to resolve this"

Sounds ‘positive’ (as in a slightly more grown-up approach, looking for compromise and common ground) . But like all sound bites, it’s only hot air until something is actually done.

It is a nice bit of spin, but it is more towards "let's Brexit" rather than "let's cancel/confirm with a vote on the "deal" that parliament can put forward"

It is impossible to do that if parliament is gridlocked with nothing to confirm as part of a "2nd ref"

You are suggesting that ones political beliefs do not correlate with ones voting behaviour? It’s certainly a point of view.

Ukip becoming the Rapists' Party:

https://www.buzzfeed.com/markdistefano/jess-phillips-carl-benjamin-new-rape-comments?utm_source=dynamic&utm_campaign=bfsharetwitter

.photo reactive lenses - the pedo's choice.

Nearly 40 that bloke. Tragic. As Stewart Lee said about Toby Young, the trouble with being an edgelord is the wind will change and you're stuck with the horrible face you made.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-48147994

Jayda Franssen sentenced to 180 hours community service.

Her address in NI is also in there... Donaghadee is a small coastal town, I wonder how happy they are to have her there ;)

Truth.

An expensive coastal village too. Neighbours will be pleased - not!

Um. I was being sarcastic.

Sorry. I completely missed that. Mini c00ps 3 imminent and I’m not at my sharpest (fairly low bar anyway). Also should have taken note who was making the comment. ;)

It's too posh for a good house egging maybe that is the strategy.

Doubt a bit of tut-tutting chases her out.

Lol. I’m probably too cynical but MAYBE the neighbours may agree, in private, with her views.

People like that have absolutely no role in public life. Disgusting comments.