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That's some beautiful highlighting but you didn't put a square around the bit where I said the Tories are being punished by both sides, plus I did say Labour are being punished for being pro-Brexit (or not anti-Brexit enough) but I did also say I think they've been punished by Labour leavers.
In short I do agree partly with @greenbank but while I would love to believe that yesterday's election is a sign the electorate have changed their mind about Brexit I don't think they have.
Has anyone got any up-to-date polling on that?
Fox-
the Tories are being punished by both sides
If a leaver made a conscious decision not to vote Tory for leave-y type reasons, I'd suggest that you'd see an increase in votes for leaving parties. Sure Farage isn't here, but if you didn't want to vote UKIP I'd be willing to bet that every local election had a suitable independent standing under the party name 'Leave Means Leave' or 'Just Get Out' or something.
Simply not voting Tory as a punishment isn't enough as you don't pass an unambiguous-Brexit-punishment message.
Yet the only party to have increased their share significantly is a the lib dems, indicating (clearly, to me) that they're being punished by people who transfer their vote to a remain party.
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In short I do agree partly with @greenbank but while I would love to believe that yesterday's election is a sign the electorate have changed their mind about Brexit I don't think they have.
Thinking of "the electorate" as a single entity like that is kind of channelling the "will of the people" argument. I would say that a reasonable proportion of the electorate may have moved position (along with a considerable number of young people now able to vote).
The major parties (which seem to want Brexit) don't want another referendum as they know the answer will probably have shifted to the other side. If it was, say, 52/48 in favour of Remain they'd be fucked to know what to do without alienating large percentages of their support either way.
As for the local elections, I'm looking forward to the breakdown of the "OTHER" parties, but mostly interested in the turnout data. I'm guessing it'll be way down:-
- Brexit voters disillusioned by a lack of Brexit, or Government's ability to get Brexit through, and less likely to go out and vote.
- Remain voters highly enthusiastic at the opportunity for a resurgence in their cause by voting for pro-Remain parties.
Has anyone got any up-to-date polling on that?
Nothing on the BritainElects twitter feed about remain/leave polls since Apr 4th.
- Brexit voters disillusioned by a lack of Brexit, or Government's ability to get Brexit through, and less likely to go out and vote.
christianSpaceman
Greenbank
In (2) you disagree with (1), then in (3) you agree with (1).
This is confusing.