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It looks that way. Going to give up on this and try and get it back to the seller/get a refund.
While the project seemed dead, Brother in the Wild is mid-May, @Zone2 listed this Trek Soho S at the weekend and it was promptly collected, thanks!
I've still not had time to look and measure it up properly but it looks like I won't need those forks @Thrasher, the a-c looks to be closer to road.
FFS turned up today and look at the state of the rear dropout.
7005 alloy, toast?