EU referendum, brexit and the aftermath

long term plans are apply to EU for longer extension of Art 50 or revoke Art 50 - both of those things avoid no deal crash out. either of those things need to happen before 12th april to avoid no deal.

short term plan is for indicative votes process to resume on Monday to see if parliament can find a majority to back a version of brexit - if so most likely some form of soft brexit with possibly confirmatory vote attached to it. if successful probably GE as govt will almost certainly refuse to go back to EU to try and negotiate it. if unsuccessful GE as no other option.

Thank god for that...

Any scope for securing a 2nd ref before a GE is called? Would be so much better if the GE didn't need to be pitched as a Labour 2nd ref vs Tory no 2nd ref (though not sure what they'd actually suggest at this point - one of the softer Brexits?)

So Terry Fuckwit fucksit for Brexit

"The Prime Minister..."

Was I the only one imagining the possibility of seeing my first live resignation speech?

Ah well. :(

Think it would be logical for Labour to push a Lexit w/ ratification referendum ... though arguably a GE nullifies need for referendum (only real difference would be allowing remain / revoke back into discourse)

BBCR5 Tony Livesey 'interviewing' Chris Grayling.
Speech marks as twice Grayling blamed the loss of this vote on the Labour Party.
Neither time did the unremittingly useless Livesey point out that plenty of Tory MPs
also voted against the WA, some for a third time.

Another brexitty Tory talking voice on BBCR5
was blaming the failure to pass the WA on
'Remainers who have opposed brexit since the Referendum'.
Too right,
but,
how did Remainers;
put David ('thick as mince') Davis in charge of the brexit negotiations
put dfds Liam Fox in charge of the UK's trade deals
force David Davis (and a load of nonentity flat earth brexiteurs) to resign
put geographically-challenged Dominic Raab in charge of negotiations,
how did we Remainers scupper brexit by putting the Leavers 'brightest & best'
in positions of responsibility?

edit, misread

Hah!

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https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-47751805

Leave rally in progress. And who is speaking?

Farage and Tommy Robinson. What a way to make yourself look like the "we are not racist but..." trope.

"Get over it guys, you won."

Happened on the leave rally around 12:00 today as it crossed Wandsworth Bridge Road. I was on my large old noisy motorbike at the traffic lights shouting vicious sweary abuse at the shower of pricks taking part. It looked like the check-in queue for an easy jet flight to Portugal in September. It felt good. 10/10 would hurl verbal abuse at leavers on a daily basis.

did they get more than a million ?

ROFL, lol, etc.

What a shitshow.

I was quite literally looking at jobs in the Arctic today and giving them serious thought.

So er what now? I feel like I'm asking this every 3 days lately.

Got caught out in the leave demonstration in Parliament square, on the way back from lunch in town.

It was carnage - there must have been tens of people there!

Sounds like general election where we get to choose a different shade of baby eating cluster fuck with equally unrealistic views on the UK's economic and political clout in the world when May's menagerie of public schooled genocidal clowns already pissed away any goodwill or respect we might have had...

But equally, who the fuck still supports Corbyn?

He's achieved the unthinkable in making Millibands look like he was some kind of halcyon day. At least he stood for enough things that he carved them into a big fake rock in between bacon sandwich eating

Now, the default position is no deal crash out of EU on 12.04.19 -

The only way to avoid that is by a long extension of Art 50 if EU agree to it (and they are not guaranteed to and in fact are making threatening noises in that respect it seems) - or by Parliament revoking Art 50 which for many is unpalatable as it will be seen as a real nail in the coffin of Brexit, at leats in the short and medium term. The hope is that before 12.05.19 some form of consensus can be reached in Parliament as a way forward to show the EU we have a realistic Brexit plan to justify the Art 50 extension.

That hope is based on Parliament carrying on with its indicative votes procedure on Monday, trying to find a parliamentary majority that will get behind a Brexit option (the only likely candidate seems to be a soft Brexit with close market ties (and associated obligations to EU), coupled perhaps with confirmatory vote - e.g. a 2nd referendum). If they don't find a majority for anything then the only real option left is a GE as all prospects of a parliamentary resolution will have been exhausted, with Art 50 then extended by the grace of the EU or revoked by Parliament for the GE to happen.

The added complication is that even if Parliament pulls it off at the 11th hour and find a majority for a Brexit proposal in Monday's indicatives votes, it then needs the agreement of the government to put the wheels in motion - i.e. go back to the EU and re-negotiate things. The government has said repeatedly that it won't support any Brexit deal that breaches its election manifesto (e.g. Teresa May's red lines). If that happens, then Parliament will be deadlocked and the only way forward will be a GE, again requiring a long extension of Art 50 by the EU or a revocation of Art 50 by Parliament.

These ways forwards presuppose however that the will of Parliament remains to avoid a no deal Brexit - there will still be some pressing for that. If the EU refuse to extend Art 50 the choice for Parliament will be either no deal crash out or revoke Art 50...as above many will find revocation unpalatable and might be more persuaded to go for no deal than before. This dynamic will be interesting as I suspect we will see more flip flops from the likes of the ERG who suddenly refind their principals and push again for a no deal brexit, decrying all deal options on the table now that a no deal future is potentially on the cards again.

The EU won't renegotiate.

It is the WA and more talking, or drop all the red lines and take an off-the-shelf. Only SM and CU will keep the border with ROI open. If that passes next week, I don't see the point, but negotiations will be pretty fast then.

If the government/parliament can't acknowledge that and wants a special solution/be in denial, then the negotiations AFTER the WA will be decided by whomever is in power after a GE or A50 has to be canned.

Either way, it'll be extra time unless the WA passes and it won't.

Crikey!

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Can't find a recording of that particular quote but he's been sounding much more reasonable than most Tories this afternoon https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-47747945

an insightful, if partisan, analysis of where we were and are
https://www.politics.co.uk/blogs/2019/03/29/brexit-day-is-cancelled-may-s-final-deception-falls-apart