EU referendum, brexit and the aftermath

Bloody hell, imagine if we leave with no deal AND get Boris Johnson as PM.

😱

Fuck. People are already making Downfall memes with May as Hitler, but that sounds like a quote directly from the Führerbunker.

So the EU have slightly scuppered TM in my view.

She doesn't need any help with that.

I'm glad the grown ups took control. Let's hope any remaining grown ups in Parliament step up to the mark next week.

Leave by 29th March now up to 12/1

12/4 only exists to force us to hold elections for new MEPs on 23/5 which opens the door to a far longer extension period.

Question: John Bercow said he wouldn't allow the same deal on the table for the third time, but that is what EU wants next week?

It’s been substantially changed.

The extensions have been added.

Bercow may still decide that’s not enough change but he’s had his moment, a shot across the boughs so to speak. TM has been warned to stop trying to strong arm parliament, a lesson she has clearly not learnt given her we the people vs them the democratically elected representatives speech the other day.

Thanks a lot.

I'm still not clear on what parliament can do if TM decides she'd prefer no deal over long extension.

The default remains no deal, and up until recently I still thought TM would blink at that reality, but now I'm not so sure.

How do MPs force the long extension if the government doesn't want to entertain the idea? How do MPs ensure a vote is binding?

For a start, May has not even a single shred of authority left now. She is not even a lame duck PM, more a dead duck. The threat of a successful vote of no confidence is very real right now, although a general election is the last thing we need.

MPs need to vote to take control of the order of the HoC, then they can hold a series of votes to work out what steps we should take next. A cross party motion has been put forward proposing exactly this, time for the majority of sensible MPs to assert their authority.

A cross party motion has been put forward proposing exactly this

The "Cooper-Boles" amendment.

Describing May's delivery of her "plan" to all 27 EU countries at the summit last night:

" It was 90 minutes of nothing,” one EU source said. “She didn’t even give clarity if she is organising a vote. Asked three times what she would do if she lost the vote, she couldn’t say. It was fucking awful. Dreadful. Evasive even by her standards.”

Mortifying. Embarrassing. Disgusting.

The extensions have been added.

Bercow may still decide that’s not enough change but he’s had his moment

I'm pretty sure the extensions will be enough. He said something along the lines of if you bring it back with an actual change I'll let it pass but not if it's exactly the same.

But the numbers still don't add up unless MPs lose their nerve.

I'm still not clear on what parliament can do if TM decides she'd prefer no deal over long extension.

Some of the reports coming out of the Tory party say that she has already decided that No Deal is better than a long extension. Which fits with her "I'm on your side" protecting-the-referendum mania and gives her a way to flip from feeling a failure - with the defeat of her deal - to feeling she is a victor, forcing Brexit through no matter what.

How do MPs force the long extension if the government doesn't want to entertain the idea?

They can't - May has secured a shorter extension from the EU than she wanted. She wanted June, they gave her May. We can't force the EU to give us longer, but naturally if there was a vote to remain they'd accept that straight away.

I agree with Andy's analysis, May's even lost her chief whip's confidence and he's being openly critical. That's about as bad as it gets for any PM (or should be).

I think the MV3 will have to happen first, but a no confidence vote next week is a real possibility. May got 63% on December 12th - a lot has changed since then and it's hard to see how she could survive one. Then the Commons could take control and come up with something sensible by April 12th.

Assume you mean a no confidence vote of the house? There can't be a Tory only one, 12m haven't passed since the last. And I wouldn't expect Tories to vote down the govt as that reflects on them too.

Farage on BBCR4 Today, but minor post 08.30 spot, claiming 'many' of the 2M petition votes are 'from Russia'. Well he and Aaron Banks should know all about that.

They gave May May ... There's a joke in there somewhere.

It’s been substantially changed.

Interestingly, chatting to a lawyer on whether or not there could be an extension without an Act of Parliament, there is a good argument against requiring one as it's not substantially changed. The logic being nothing is fundamentally altered - just the arbitrary day that has been chosen. A very long extension, would probably be different however.

The fact it grew by almost half a million overnight made me briefly ponder where all the clicks are coming from.

Then the Commons could take control and come up with something sensible by April 12th.

What would this be do you think?

All the talk, nothing to actually contribute, exactly as I though. Fuck off.

if my name had been fingered in the Mueller investigation, i'd keep my yap shut about Russia.

I would have my concerns - that website has been compromised by bots before. Not sure if they upped security but there is still no captcha bot prevention thing.

However, the Russians are openly keen on the UK leaving the EU, why would they stoke up a remain petition?

RNige was under pressure for having that racist retweeting woman as 'interim' leader of his new party. He switched to lashing out mode, and forgot that we all know about Putin being pro-brexit,
and the need to dissociate himself from anything connected with Russia.