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Got sent this recently, interesting reading (if you can momentarily block out the voice in your head going "AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAARGH!" about this entire national clusterfuck).
Why Remainers were shocked by the referendum result, but Leavers less so
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She simply has to pass a thing saying "we're suspending the rule about bringing the same motion for this vote". If she has the votes to pass her deal it is trivial to circumvent the Erskine May rule.
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I think that helped her out last week, gave her an excuse not to hold the vote...which she'd certainly have lost. Now, it's getting close to the end game she's been aiming for.
However, I think she's blown the deal with that speach. Just depends if parliament can wrestle enough control back next week to prevent no deal. I'm not 100% on how the mechanics of that work, but some combination of amendments must pass. I'm still not sure how parliament can prevent her forcing through no deal though.
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As far as I understand it these are the possibilities now:
- Despite May's best efforts to obliterate all support for her deal, MPs become scared enough of no deal or no Brexit (depending on which side you're on) to pass her WA. Remain/soft Brexit people probably could amend it with something, as they're the biggest group, but I don't think there's time for PV before 22 May.
- May's deal fails, short extension therefore unpossible, EU decrees an emergency two-year extension conditional on PV or GE or both, MPs vote between long delay or no deal. May surely a goner by this point.
- Despite May's best efforts to obliterate all support for her deal, MPs become scared enough of no deal or no Brexit (depending on which side you're on) to pass her WA. Remain/soft Brexit people probably could amend it with something, as they're the biggest group, but I don't think there's time for PV before 22 May.
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Mays deal fails, we get offered an extension to 12 April 2019 only.
If we call MEP elections to be held on 23 May we then get a longer extension.
Under UK rules, the latest we can legislate to hold these elections is 11 April hence the EU only offering to extend until 12April to ensure we hold an MEP election and don’t break the EU parliament.
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what a nation of pansies. 2 million molotovs is what they need, not a stupid petition. SMH
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Got it. The mad thing is that the 12th April thing is the EUs plan for us! Wasn't TMs ask at all. Hello sovereignty!
So the EU have slightly scuppered TM in my view. By saying - if you lose the vote, don't worry, we'll still give you a couple of weeks to decide what to do. No deal on the 12th April, or get involved in the elections and go down the GE/PV route.
Gives more time for parliament to gets it act together, hopefully with the deal removed from the table that will be easier.
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So what is @mashton 's calculation as to when the petition will exceed 17.4m signatures? :)
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Hey, I signed it ....!
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my mums flat is a couple hundred yards from that morrisons, not that surprised to hear this happened right outside, it's grim as fuck.
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We'll be here all week! :)
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Yes, I hadn't seen the 12th April thing earlier.
https://www.buzzfeed.com/albertonardelli/eu-leaders-allow-short-delay-brexit
Think you're right. Odds of no deal must have gone down again. ERG don't have the numbers to force us into a no deal if we've got nice delays waiting for us.
Surely, surely, May can't do MV4. If she loses this one her deal is well and truly dead. And I can't see how she can go on as PM if her deal is gone.
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Some of that map data on the petition here:
https://twitter.com/thomasforth/status/1108518312105951235?s=21
welpeur
ffm
frankenbike
Scrabble
itsbruce
Ramsaye
rhb
Dammit
ObiWomKenobi
Oliver Schick
yoshy
mashton
HatBeard
Fyoosh-
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EU referendum, brexit and the aftermath
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