• As far as I understand it these are the possibilities now:

    1. Despite May's best efforts to obliterate all support for her deal, MPs become scared enough of no deal or no Brexit (depending on which side you're on) to pass her WA. Remain/soft Brexit people probably could amend it with something, as they're the biggest group, but I don't think there's time for PV before 22 May.
    2. May's deal fails, short extension therefore unpossible, EU decrees an emergency two-year extension conditional on PV or GE or both, MPs vote between long delay or no deal. May surely a goner by this point.
  • Mays deal fails, we get offered an extension to 12 April 2019 only.

    If we call MEP elections to be held on 23 May we then get a longer extension.

    Under UK rules, the latest we can legislate to hold these elections is 11 April hence the EU only offering to extend until 12April to ensure we hold an MEP election and don’t break the EU parliament.

  • Got it. The mad thing is that the 12th April thing is the EUs plan for us! Wasn't TMs ask at all. Hello sovereignty!

    So the EU have slightly scuppered TM in my view. By saying - if you lose the vote, don't worry, we'll still give you a couple of weeks to decide what to do. No deal on the 12th April, or get involved in the elections and go down the GE/PV route.

    Gives more time for parliament to gets it act together, hopefully with the deal removed from the table that will be easier.

About

Avatar for Ramsaye @Ramsaye started