It's easy for sites (and Garmins) to over estimate, especially if they've seen your HR higher.
My Garmin (Forerunner 935) is currently estimating my VO2MAX at 46 which gives race predictions of:-
5k: 22:40
10k: 47:01
Half: 1:44:11
Marathon: 3:36:24
Despite me only ever running a 24:24 5k and a 2h06 HM (the marathon times were garbage) and that was when I weighed 10kg less and was much fitter. Right now I'm aiming for a 2h15 HM on Sunday.
It's down to the watch having an incorrect opinion about my max HR, and I can't find a way to tell it otherwise. In normal running I generally max out at 180bpm at the end of 5k or similar, but playing 5-a-side I can occasionally peak at 190-200bpm. So the watch thinks that finishing a 5k at 180bpm is me taking it easy and I've got a boat load in reserve.
Ohh, which HM are you doing? I'm running in the Paris one on Sunday, hoping also to get around 2:15 - last year I did 2:17, although I have to say I'm not sure I'm as fit as I was last year!
It's easy for sites (and Garmins) to over estimate, especially if they've seen your HR higher.
My Garmin (Forerunner 935) is currently estimating my VO2MAX at 46 which gives race predictions of:-
5k: 22:40
10k: 47:01
Half: 1:44:11
Marathon: 3:36:24
Despite me only ever running a 24:24 5k and a 2h06 HM (the marathon times were garbage) and that was when I weighed 10kg less and was much fitter. Right now I'm aiming for a 2h15 HM on Sunday.
It's down to the watch having an incorrect opinion about my max HR, and I can't find a way to tell it otherwise. In normal running I generally max out at 180bpm at the end of 5k or similar, but playing 5-a-side I can occasionally peak at 190-200bpm. So the watch thinks that finishing a 5k at 180bpm is me taking it easy and I've got a boat load in reserve.