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Post hoc non ergo propter hoc. A whole bunch of things changed between "arbitrary time in the past when things seemed better" and now. Which of those things contributed to a slackening off in community feeling or community growth, which are incidental and which are just symptoms would be very hard to prove.
For example, compass beers mostly died (or became private meet-ups among people who aren't interested in having strangers along, which is another way of saying dead because that isn't compass beers). Was that a cause or a symptom?
More to your point, there's definitely a school of thought on the forum that the move to microcosm, whether through faults in the UI/features or because it was forced rather than planned, put a dampener on some of the community aspects. Some people have suggested that TNRC numbers dropped because the new UI made it less likely that people would stumble across TNRC in the first place. Was that true, or was it just that key people driving its momentum moved on?
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itsbruce
Could this all be linked to rep, if people knew they might get rep for staying then they might stay and all that.