EU referendum, brexit and the aftermath

Worth considering that purchasing power parity is nearly 35% higher in the US

Yes but you lose a lot of the that with the costs of health insurance and you have to drive absolutely everywhere and that's not free. I base that on my experience working in manufacturing/machine shops in the US (although that was a VERY long time ago) but I would concur with @laner that UK workers are probably better off.

Possible Tory defections to the Independent Group set for later this morning:

https://twitter.com/nicholaswatt/status/1098137448511692800?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1098137448511692800&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theguardian.com%2Fpolitics%2Flive%2F2019%2Ffeb%2F20%2Fjoan-ryan-becomes-eighth-labour-mp-to-join-independent-group-politics-live

UK workers are probably better off.

For the next month or so, in any case.

The "basket of goods and services" used in PPP calculations usually includes the cost of healthcare, at least on paper. I'm not sure if I believe it though, given the stories I have heard from people I know in the US.

EDIT: The theory is that the good and services used to measure PPP cover all basic things required to live a healthy life.

May starts rewriting her 'your party is split' zingers for PMQs.

^Dubtap style ambiguity. 3 Tory MPs join the Independents.

hAPPENING STATUS : ITS

HM does that means 11 anti brexit voters now that they have no party allegiance? Or even more DUP / ERG power?

She can’t get a deal through parliament now. I think she will try and scrap another vote and just go through with the deal when it comes down to the wire.

I'd love to know what the backroom deals were over the last two days. There must have been panic on the ex-Labour side as threats of an early-election were raised. I wonder if Joan Ryan's move was meant to encourage/placate the Tory jumpers. Or just an attempt to keep their movement in the news cycle.

Joan Ryan was quite unpopular in her constituency anyway after she was the highest-claiming London MP in the expenses scandal.

She lost out to a Tory in 2010 and a lot of constituents were disappointed when she was selected again to run in 2015. She benefited from the Labour surge in 2017 despite (or because of?) telling people to vote for her, not for the Labour leadership.

In other words, no big loss.

I don't disagree, and all the more reason to note the timing of her move.

So as far as I understand the Independent Group currently contains elected MPs only.
But if there was a GE anytime soon, would they also field fresh candidates for other constituencies? I.e. you could enter politics for the first time and run as an Independent Group candidate against the usual Tory, Labour, Raving Loonie Party etc. Have they said anything about that?

They're not a party

I don't think they can field candidates until they register with the Electoral Commissions as a 'party'. (Even Rnige understands this, or, rather, Rnige's backers understand this).

There's a theory that they are not a party yet because that means that they don't have to declare who their donors are.

That could be true - it doesn't sound implausible. But they've also been around for two days. I doubt they could have registered with the electoral commission in advance of Monday without telegraphing their intentions.

Powerful and damning speech by Heidi Allen just now with some pointed barbs at both May and Johnson. She definitely doesn't belong in the Tories, seems to care far too much about tackling poverty and inequality...

The Independent Group is now the same size as the Liberal Democrats in the House.

One more defection and they’ll become the fourth biggest party.

Some people are arguing that as she has a voting record of quite consistently voting to reduce spending on welfare benefits and disability benefits, that might not be the case.

Of course, spending on welfare and tackling poverty are not the same thing.

If they declare a GE now IIRC with the 25 days notice period the election itself would be on the 28th of March.

Now May could apply to the EU for an A50 extension to accommodate said GE, but without one of either Labour or the Tories stating unequivocally that they’d campaign on a revoke/remain or leave with a deal that is actually possible platform, why would the EU agree?

=I think the GE is now dead as an option.

What I find interesting about all this is how under FPTP the two main parties still (or, indeed, again, with Corbyn's Labour) have genuine and strong differences--unlike the perception of the CDU and SPD under the Grand Coalition in Germany or, indeed, the main parties in the last few years of the Weimar Republic. There, the perceived lack of distinction between the 'centrist' parties has led to a much-reduced share of the vote for said parties and a much-increased vote for the Greens and the AfD. It is to be expected that this move to the 'centre' (which everybody always tries to define in their way, and it has probably lurched a little to the right again) will lead to a resurgence of the (more) extreme right, probably under Farage, whereas I don't think it's going to affect the Labour vote that much.

I don't think there will be a general election any time soon--I'm still convinced that the Tories won't call one unless they've done the Boundary Review, and the 'Independent Group' would just be wiped out again immediately before they've organised themselves properly. I think it would be good to have a general election, though, so I hope I'm wrong (again).

there's a tweet for everything etc.

https://twitter.com/ChukaUmunna/status/779636276555284480

Stop bringing up ancient history. People can change. Etc..

Whatever happened to the Popular People's Front of Judea?

Squashed by the Judean People's front.