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In 2018, Stephane came past me in the 2nd hour of the race, I was doing around 270W average (sustainable for me for a bit), he's a lot lighter, and was well into the red.
You can push a bit while you've power but not too much. It's sleep that messes with you also. If you're sleeping 7h a night, you can push more, or won't degrade so much. Whatever I do, I will degrade. Though pushing more power at the start I'd degrade sooner.
I could average 240W (ish) the first 24h+, however I keep a lid on it and only do 200W. It's a race to the finish not CP1.
skinny-
So the key is optimising the degrade curve. And there are two levers - how hard you push and how long you push for - but it get's messy as they are related.
The figures from the guy above tell me he rode way too conservatively for the amount of power at his disposal. Without knowing anything else I feel he could have been a couple of days quicker. (I did similar on PBP 2015).
Stephane clearly went into the red on day 1, but was that the wrong strategy? Until he got lost in the goat tracks, he was still in the mix for the podium.
In Indypac my hunch is that Mike might have been better to let Kristof go, then try to reel him in over a few days, Froome-style. I think that is what you would do now in the same circumstances, But Kristof would have reckoned Mike's would be more instinctive and try to chase him down.
frank9755
I've thought about this quite a bit and I don't know either! First thought is that it should be like a TT, steady power is fastest. But I think it depends on the context. And it often seems that those who get towards the front early on tend to stay there.
On pbp you have to smash it from the start. I screwed it up completely last time by trying to hold back and ride to power. I put it down to drafting but maybe there's more to it.
On indypac Kristof came screaming past me at high /unsustainable speed (I later learned he had deliberately set off last). Mike responded, screaming past me almost a fast a couple of minutes later. I got the idea it was a planned move by kristof and Mike felt he had to respond as he couldn't afford to give him a gap. But maybe he would have been better to have let him go and ridden his own race? Sarah played it differently, probably she didn't have the speed to chase. She went steady at the start. I rode close to her for an hour or so (ie until the first hill) and it didn't cost her.
But I also think of @skinny in 2015 and, Stephane last year, they both dug very deep to get to the front and held on for most of the race.