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I'm really not sure it's a given that TM would loss a confidence vote
And isn't posturing that you're going to raise one if the WA is voted down only going to galvanise Tories into voting it through?
I don't understand the desire for an election either (unless he's quietly looking for the ensuing disaster to reshape stuff as he'd want, in the same way that I assume the Tories are). I don't think Labour's Brexit position is anywhere mature (or at least, honest) enough to survive examination.
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Exactly, voting against May's deal is one thing, voting your party out of power is a completely different thing.
However, since May survived her vote of no confidence (in her) before Christmas she's immune for another year in that respect.
If the party want her out then they have to:
a) pressure her to resign and trigger a leadership contest
b) lose the vote of no confidence (in the Government) that triggers a GE, and May would be forced to resign in shame
c) take the nuclear option and have some Tories abstain or even vote against her in the vote of no confidence (in the Government) - unprecedented
d) something else I haven't thought ofThe threat of (b) happening or them actively doing (c) may be what is required to force (a).
In reality, I think she'll stick around for even longer. When May's deal is voted down (Tuesday if it all goes ahead as normal) then Parliament should get to vote on the various options (no deal, another deal - based on different red lines, Norway plus, remain, second ref possibly, etc). She can always cling on to the "I was just trying to implement the will of the people" line which she has been spouting all along so far which, I think, she is hoping means she is isolated from the outcome despite choosing many of the red lines (none of which were on the original referendum ballot paper).
Labour have to move pretty swiftly after Tuesday's vote, or when the vote(s) on the various options is due to take place. [EDIT] As said above, their position does not seem to be fleshed out at all, and if they leave it too late they may not be able to communicate their position quickly enough to persuade the electorate.
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christianSpaceman
Greenbank
@HousecatHST
I'm really not sure it's a given that TM would loss a confidence vote, even after having her WA being rejected, normal rules don't seam to apply anymore, given the number of votes the government have lost you would have expected them to have fallen by now. Nothing will unite the Tories more than Labour making a move on them.
I also really don't understand Labour eagerness for any election, there coalition of voters are even more fragile than the Tories.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jan/10/jeremy-corbyn-election-nightmare-labour-brexit
Labour’s tacticians will be acutely mindful of the stark polling figures. When YouGov asked how people would vote if Labour supported going ahead with Brexit, Labour slumped to third place, at 22%, behind the Liberal Democrats, who jumped to 26%. That’s a mistake Labour will never make, whatever Corbyn’s private predilections.
Labour will have to face the brexit issue head on and either get on with backing remain or very very close to remain or there going to loss again badly.